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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-26-15.

The San Carlos Week in Review is the only in depth weekly recap of the San Carlos real estate market, and it’s available every week on the White Oaks Blog.

Chuck’s Sales

Focus = Results. If you hope to succeed in this ultra-competitive real estate market, it’s imperative that you enlist the help of an experienced Realtor who is laser-focused on the local real estate market, and who thoroughly understands the micro-economic nuances of each neighborhood.   The stakes are simply too high …

San Carlos Residential Real Estate Recap for the First Half of 2015.

The San Carlos real estate market just completed one of the most remarkable 6-month periods in recent history. The question is whether or not the market can maintain this bullish strength.

Map of San Carlos Regions

The Realtor Zones. When it comes to residential real estate, the City of San Carlos is divided up into 6 different real estate “zones”: Alder Manor (Area 350), Beverly Terrace (351), El Sereno Corte (352), Howard Park (353), Clearfield Park (354), and Cordes (355). When a home is for sale …

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Best of Tour in San Carlos: 7-28-2015.

Illustration of concept with word the best on background

As I mentioned in this week’s San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review, there was a somewhat surprising bump in the number of new listings to hit the market this week, considering that we are still in the thick of summer and most sellers opt to wait until after Labor Day to test the market again.

Perhaps some are looking to jump the gun on the fall market?

Whatever the reason, this bump in listings made for a busy tour day on Tuesday in San Carlos.  As I occasionally do on the site, I like to highlight one (or more) of these new listings that catch my attention after I finish touring them all on Tuesday.

1976 White Oak Way.

This may seem to be an odd pick as my “Best of Tour San Carlos” to some, considering there are larger and newer homes that were on tour this week. But I really like 1976 White Oak Way, not because of what it is now, but more for the potential of what it can be.  1976 White Oak Way is listed at $1,198,000 by my friend John Shroyer at Today Sothebys.  (Click on the picture below for the listing details).

1976 White Oak Way, San Carlos

1976 White Oak Way, San Carlos

At first blush, it’s not easy to see why this is my go-to house of the week. After all, it’s only a 2BR/1BA, 1,230 square foot home that needs some updating. But what make this one a winner, and will make it a hotly contested listing, is the location and the potential.

This home is located on 5,600 square foot flat lot right in the heart of White Oaks.  It’s on the part of White Oak Way that dead-ends into the elementary school, so aside from the normal drop-off and pick-up routines, there shouldn’t be much traffic on this block. This is exactly the starting point that many well-heeled buyers in San Carlos are looking for to build their own dream home.

The curb appeal of this block of White Oak Way is fabulous, so no matter what the new buyers ultimately do with this home, it will be money well spent in one of the better locations in the city.  It will be very interesting to see where this one goes when they take offers next week.

440 Chestnut Street.

If you like a home with lots of character, then 440 Chestnut Street is well worth seeing. It has to be the largest 2-bedroom home that I’ve ever seen, topping the stats at a whopping 2,460 sq feet (per the MLS). The character and architecture of this house is what captures you when you walk in — at 80 years, it’s one of the older homes in San Carlos in one of the oldest sections of town.  It’s listed for $1,595,000 by Patricia Giossi of Coldwell Banker. Click on the picture below for all of the listing details.

440 Chestnut Street, San Carlos

440 Chestnut Street, San Carlos

As you might expect in a Spanish-style home from the 1930’s, there are lots of architectural goodies in this home. Grand hardwood floors, arched doorways, and spacious ceilings are remnants of the heritage of San Carlos. But what makes this home a winner, much like 1976 White Oak Way, is the potential.  There’s just a lot of room to do things with in this home — even in the huge detached garage, which has a sprawling attached area that’s probably as big as the garage itself. A little imagination will go a long way with this house.

The location is also a huge plus for this home. Cordes, as I’ve mentioned many times on this site, is actually much closer to all of the hot restaurants on NoLa (North Laurel) than most homes in White Oaks and Howard Park. Even more important, it’s an easy hoof to the Caltrain station for those who choose not to slog it out on 101 every day.

Those are my two picks from this week’s tour.  Let me know if you’re interested in seeing either of them!
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Schools and Land Use in San Carlos.

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A Common Misconception.

When it comes to commercial building development in San Carlos, the Building and Planning Divisions of San Carlos are intimately involved in the every step of the process. From the initial conceptual design and environmental impact report (EIR) all the way through implementation and construction of the project, you can rest assured that both Divisions carry significant influence in how the development will ultimately turn out.

For every major commercial development that is currently under construction or in the planning phases for construction (Wheeler Plaza, Transit Village, Landmark Hotel, etc..), that’s exactly how the process works. But there’s one class of development that is the exception to this rule, and it creates lots of confusion in the community who owns oversees it – schools.

Because the development of new schools is governed at the state level, the City has very little involvement into where schools can be built, and what they ultimately look like.  Unfortunately, the City becomes the punching bag when unpopular decisions are made in this area, when in reality it’s entirely out of their hands.

Recently, the Sequoia Union High School District made some significant waves in the local community by announcing its intent to build two “magnet” high schools within its boundaries. These two schools would be of much smaller scale than the existing campuses in the District, with each holding only 300-400 students — less than 1/4 of the enrollment of any other school in the district, and a far smaller physical footprint since neither school needs the additional space for athletic facilities.

The District moved forward and closed on two properties targeted for these magnet campuses.  The first is at 153 Jefferson Avenue in Menlo Park, and the second plot is at 535 Old County Road in the Greater East Side Neighborhood of San Carlos.

The controversy arises not from the fact that the District has chosen to build the two campuses. They are battling the same over-capacity concerns that literally every school district on the Peninsula is right now. The concern is over the location of the school – specifically, the proposed San Carlos magnet school. Anyone who knows San Carlos traffic patterns is keenly aware that the multiple intersections of Holly Street at both El Camino Real and Old County Road already get extremely congested during peak hours. Adding a 400-student school right at this intersection is going to pose some significant traffic challenges.

To make matters worse for GESC residents, it comes on the heels of battles that were fought over the Transit Village, the Landmark Hotel, and the Holly Street re-striping. This must have a certain “deja-vu” feeling to it, and I’m quite certain they feel that they are on the defense yet again.

The Future Of Laureola Park?

Of equal concern with the San Carlos location is the fact that it is adjacent to Laureola Park, which has prompted fears from the community that the magnet school will eventually absorb this coveted neighborhood park for its own use.

While the City of San Carlos has very little impact on the development of schools, it does have the ultimate control and authority over what can be done with its parks, a fact that the City recently reassured its citizens of in an online letter.  It also used this opportunity to provide citizens with the proper conduit to voice their opinions about the proposed magnet school development.

So the bottom line is that while the City has very little control over the magnet school that is being proposed, it does have ultimate authority over Laureola Park.  And as of now, it’s not going anywhere.

Here is the letter from the City of San Carlos in its entirety:

Most projects and land use decisions in San Carlos require City approval. As such, residents are used to sharing their comments and concerns about such proposals with their elected City Council members and the City Staff. One of the few exceptions to this City land use control is the planning and building of public schools. The State agencies listed at the bottom of the page oversee all public school projects and both the High School District and San Carlos Elementary School District are exempted by the State from any local land use control and oversight.

The decision to locate a new magnet high school in San Carlos is under the sole jurisdiction of the Sequoia Union High School District Board.  The City has had very little involvement with the specifics of the proposed 300-400 student magnet high school that the District is considering locating on Old County Road near Laureola Park and the Cal Train Station.  The City staff has offered to meet with District Staff to discuss their proposed new school and any potential sites and alternatives in San Carlos.

While the City is interested in hearing from our community about how they feel about what’s being proposed, the City does not have the ability to approve or reject the project.  There has also been a lot of talk in the community that the District will take or use Laureola Park as part of the school. This has not been proposed by the District to date nor has the City considered this. The park is the sole responsibility of the City and its City Council members and any future proposals to use the park in conjunction with a high school would be discussed and considered by the City Council with the public before any changes could take place with regard to the park. While the District can build a school without the City being involved, they cannot take or use a City park without the City’s consent.

Early next year the City will use the Shape San Carlos open online town hall forum to provide residents with the opportunity to share their views on the High School District’s proposed plans.

In the meantime, if you’d like to share your thoughts with your elected High School Board members their contact information is as follows:

Allen Weiner, President
[email protected]
650-724-5892

Olivia Martinez, Vice President
[email protected]
650-323-7311

Chris Thomsen
[email protected]
650-736-7569

Carrie Du Bois
[email protected]
650-766-9069

Alan Sarver
[email protected]
650-592-6129

State Agencies:

California Department of Education
916-319-0800
http://www.cde.ca.gov/index.asp

Office of Public School Construction
916-376-1771
http://www.dgs.ca.gov/opsc/Home.aspx

Division of the State Architect
916-445-8100
http://www.dgs.ca.gov/dsa/home.aspx

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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-26-15.

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The Scoop.

It was a surprisingly robust week for new listings in San Carlos, considering that we’re smack in the middle of the summer and late-July is not traditionally a strong market for listing homes. Nonetheless, there were seven new single-family listings that entered the market last week, which helped to drive the inventory up to a total of 14 homes for sale. That’s still not a huge number, but it’s a good pop above where we closed the previous week.

Sale prices for homes that closed last week were remarkably strong, too, with the sales prices fetching a whopping 19% above the list price on average.  That’s significantly higher than what we typically see on a weekly basis, and this week it can be attributed both to some surprisingly strong sales prices, combined with a few homes that were simply under-priced to begin with, which skewed that number slightly upward.

But regardless, the market still remains active and strong for single-family residences in San Carlos.  The same can’t be said for condos and townhomes, though.  As of this morning, there is only one condo for sale in the entire city

Here’s the scoop from last week:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 7-26-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 7-26-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 6 8
Average Sold Price: $1,471,000 $1,837,725
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $795 $852
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 119% 110%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 10 23
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 16 19
No. of New Listings: 7 4
Total # of Active Listings: 14 10
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,785,243 $1,829,395
Average DOM of Active Listings: 12 11
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $785 $823
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.89 : 1 0.53 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-19-15.

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The Scoop.

I always like to comb through the data every week when I run these reports to look for particular numbers that stand out. There’s usually one or two that will raise an eyebrow, and this week is no exception.

The first number that jumped out at me was the average sold price in San Carlos last week, which was a a whopping $1,837,725. And that’s just the average price for the week, and it’s abnormally skewed by having a small data pool.  There were 8 homes that closed escrow last week, which is a decent number for San Carlos, and half of them sold for $1.9M or higher.

Along the same theme, the second number that made me take notice was the average list price for a single-family home in San Carlos, which has now topped $1.8M. This 8% jump in the average list price in just a single week can be largely attributed to the addition of the $3M listing at 120 Wingate Avenue, but it’s still amazing to see how high home prices have climbed in San Carlos in just a few years. The City of Good Living is becoming an expensive place to live.

Here’s the scoop from last week:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 7-19-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 7-19-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 8 4
Average Sold Price: $1,837,725 $1,775,950
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $852 $801
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 110% 112%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 23 28
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 19 24
No. of New Listings: 4 5
Total # of Active Listings: 10 9
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,829,395 $1,693,100
Average DOM of Active Listings: 11 9
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $823 $807
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.53 : 1 0.42 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-12-15.

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The “slight bump” in listings that I predicted (or wishfully hoped for) in last week’s post somewhat materialized over the past week.  There were five new listings to test the summer market, which is still a significant number considering that it’s mid-July and the market is usually quiet this time of year.

The recent sales posted below at 30 Upland Avenue and 1616 Chestnut Street show that there is still significant strength in the 3-bedroom market, with both of these homes surprisingly topping the $1.6M mark. It will be interesting to see if that momentum continues with any new 3-bedroom listings that hit the market in them coming weeks.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 7-12-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 7-12-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 4 3
Average Sold Price: $1,775,950 $1,465,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $801 $860
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 112% 105%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 28 13
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 24 25
No. of New Listings: 5 4
Total # of Active Listings: 10 9
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,693,100 $1,714,889
Average DOM of Active Listings: 9 19
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $807 $726
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.42 : 1 0.36 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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San Carlos Summer Concert Series – 2015

SanCarlos_MusicInThePark_Master_300dpi(3)_1

A San Carlos Summer Tradition.

It’s July in San Carlos, and besides summer vacation and Little League Baseball, you know what July means… Summer Concerts in the Park! For those of you not familiar with this fantastic San Carlos summertime tradition, every Friday evening for the next 6 weeks the picnic area of Burton Park is transformed into a concert venue where you can join your friends and neighbors and take in some free music.

This even has gotten so popular in recent years that a permanent stage was added to the picnic area to accommodate these concerts when Burton Park got its facelift several years ago:

Photo May 30, 10 14 59 AM

Here’s the line-up for the 2015 edition of Music in the Park:

Date Band
Genre Sponsor
July 10 Cripple Creek Band
Country San Carlos Park & Recreation
July 17 Mustache Harbor Rock Party Band Provident Credit Union
July 24 E-Ticket Oldies Rock n’ Roll Today Sotheby’s International Realty & BOWWOW Meow
July 31 Chops Big Band Big Band San Carlos Elms
August 7 Lara Price Blues Revue Blues Palo Alto Medical Foundation
August 14 Donnie & the Wayrads Classic Rock Parks and Recreation Foundation of San Carlos & Recology San Mateo County

 

So pack up your lawn chairs, some great food, and your favorite wine and get ready to take in some free music along with your San Carlos neighbors and friends. Be sure to get there early to nab your favorite spot, because this event draws a great crowd.  (And remember, no separate BBQ’s allowed.)
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San Carlos Residential Real Estate Recap for the First Half of 2015.

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Fewer Listings, Higher Prices.

If you had to capture the essence of the San Carlos residential real estate market for the first half of 2015 in as few words as possible, then that header above pretty much does it. So far, 2015 has clearly been a seller’s market, just as 2014 was. We have witnessed home prices rising to breathtaking heights all along the Peninsula as even more extremely well qualified buyers entered the market and competed for fewer available listings.

The net result of these conditions is a perfect case study in economics: High demand coupled with low supply means that prices are going to go up. And they have certainly been going up here in San Carlos.

The first chart below shows that the average and median prices for all residential properties sold in San Carlos (single-family residences, townhomes, and condos) have hit an all time high for the first half of this year. Even though the data only shows the past 8 years, you can safely assume that these are the all-time high points for either one of these metrics.

To put this growth into perspective, the average cost of a residential property in San Carlos has risen by 12% since just last year, and a mind-blowing 73% since the depth of the recession in 2009:

Average and Median Prices: All San Carlos Residential Properties

Average and Median Prices: All San Carlos Residential Properties

When the data is normalized on a price per square foot basis, the results are essentially the same. This means that prices are high across the board for all homes in San Carlos, regardless of the size.  And remember, this data is for all residential properties – homes, townhomes, and condos:

SC PPSF

Price per Square Foot: All San Carlos Residential Properties

What’s the catalyst behind these staggering prices? Aside from the booming local economy, the lack of available homes for sale has resulted in bidding wars for virtually every home that hit the market this year. This is a trend that I have been tracking closely all year, and it has been evident that 2015 is on pace to have the lowest number of new listings in a very long time.

With half of the year in now the books, this trend has held true. The chart below shows the number of new listings in the first 6 months of 2015, and compares it to the same 6-month time period over the past 10 years. The 189 new residential listings recorded in San Carlos during the first six months of 2015 is down 19% from the same period last year, and represents the lowest total for that period of time for any year this past decade.

2015 New Listings in San Carlos: All Residential Properties

New Listings in San Carlos: All Residential Properties, First 6 Months of the Year.

So if you’ve felt in your gut that there have been fewer homes to choose from this year in San Carlos, you can rest assured that your intuition was statistically correct.

What Lies Ahead?

That seems to be the question that is on everyone’s mind who follows the local real estate market. After 3-4 years of unabated growth, everyone is wondering whether prices are going to continue to rise, or if the market is on the verge of pricing itself out of the affordability range of most buyers.  Here are my observations on what’s happening right now in the market, and what the impact on the real estate market may be in the second half of 2015:

  1. Current Market Conditions.  The market right now in San Carlos has slowed perceptibly from the breakneck pace that we witnessed in the Spring market. Part of this is to be expected, since the market always takes a breather from mid-June until mid-August. But every year when we feel the foot come off the gas, that nagging question creeps back in — is the market changing? The events in Greece and the recent volatility in the stock market are raising more than a few eyebrows, and there have been some widely publicized predictions that both the stock market and real estate market are prime for  a correction.
  2. Interest Rates.  For the first time since the Recession ended, we can say with certainty that mortgage interest rates are indeed going to rise. It’s no longer a matter of “if”, but of “when”. And based on the latest Federal Reserve meetings, it could happen as early as this Fall. Although rates have crept upward slightly over the past few weeks in anticipation of such a move, look for the market to react more visibly when the Fed formally announces its move.
  3. Local Job Market. There’s no indication that I’ve seen that the local high-tech fueled economy is slowing down, which should mean that more buyers will be back in the market this Fall. But if the technology job hiring slows down, look for that to have a negative impact on the market.
  4. Stock Market.  The fact that the major stock indices are sitting at or near all-time high levels is great news for home buyers, since much of their purchasing power is directly related to their equity positions. If something in the local or worldwide economy triggers a pull-back in the stock market, though, this would certainly curtail the buying power of many active home buyers. The market has shown in recent weeks to be a little twitchy with the ongoing Greece and European financial issues, so there is some understandable uneasiness with the current stock market heights.

The first few weeks of the Fall market will be a telltale indication of the health of the local real estate market. That period historically started after the Labor Day weekend, but with school starting seemingly earlier every year, the Fall real estate market will start organize itself in mid-late August when vacations have ended and school has started up again.

Stay tuned to the blog in the coming months.  I’ll be watching the market very closely to look for signs of changes. It’s going to be a very interesting Summer!

 

 
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-5-15.

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I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July weekend. It’s Monday, and time to get back to reality!

If there will ever be a part of this year where the momentum may swing slightly back in favor of home buyers, this next 5-6 weeks is probably going to be it. This is the time of year where buyers enjoy the unique combination of having the least amount of competition while there is still decent inventory to choose from. There have already been reports in the past week of homes in San Carlos and Belmont that have only gotten one offer – or none at all – once offer dates have been set. This is a sign that there are either fewer buyers in the market, or that the buyers that are out there have suddenly gotten a lot more picky. Whatever the reason is, this simply wasn’t happening just a few months ago.

Home owners who decide to sell during the summer months will wisely choose to avoid the 4th of July weekend, so you can expect to see a bump in new listings over the next couple of weeks since we have now passed that date. Home buyers that stay on task may be rewarded in the coming weeks.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 7-5-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 7-5-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 3 2
Average Sold Price: $1,465,000 $1,605,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $860 $763
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 105% 113%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 13 55
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 25 22
No. of New Listings: 4 4
Total # of Active Listings: 9 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,714,889 $1,910,535
Average DOM of Active Listings: 19 19
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $726 $737
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.36 : 1 0.50 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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