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San Carlos Real Estate November 10, 2009

San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: October ’09.

by Chuck Gillooley

If you’re looking for signs that the real estate market in San Carlos is gaining strength, then October gave us a few strong clues.   Consider the following:

  1. Unit Sales:  October ’09 unit sales jumped 67% from the previous month (September ’09) and were almost 9% higher than the October of 2008.
  2. Price Stabilization:  Average sales price rose 1.8% from September ’09, and was less than 1% below October ’08.
  3. Continued Growth:  November ’09 is on track to easily exceed November ’08 figures (see below for more details.)

These statistics indicate that October was probably the strongest month of the entire year in San Carlos, not necessarily in terms of absolute unit volume or total dollars, but definitely in terms of relative strength.     In other words, we finally seem to be breaking this year-long trend of falling well below the respective 2008 sales figures.   And early indications show that this strong trend will continue, at least for the next couple of months.

Here’s the story:

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General Trends

Here’s a graphical look at the monthly sales performance in San Carlos, dating back to last year. See below for a more in-depth analysis.

October Sales

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October 2009 Stats.

Here’s the summary from October ’09 compared to the same month in 2008:

Key Trends Oct ’09 Oct ’08 Difference from ’08
No. of Sales 25 23 2 (8.7%)
Average Price $927,020 $930,413 $3,393 (-0.4%)
Median Price $880,000 $895,000 $15,000 (-1.7%)
Avg. Days on Market 45 45 0%
% of List Price 98.66% 98.07% -%

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YTD Sales Figures Through October ’09

Here’s a snapshot of the unit sales to date in 2009, compared to previous years

Oct 09 YTD

And here’s the same data in detail, through October…

Key Trends YTD ’09 YTD ’08 Difference
No. of Sales 186 229 43 (-19%)
Average Price $926,557 $1,082,560 $156,003 (-14%)
Median Price $881,500 $1,005,101 $123,601 (-12%)
Avg. Days on Market 54 43 11 (+26%)

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Looking Ahead…

As I indicated above, November is on track to be another strong month (at least by November standards.)  In November of 2008, 14 homes closed escrow.  So far this month, 6 have already closed escrow, and another 20+ homes that are in contract are scheduled to close this month.  Even though 100% of these won’t close, it’s not a stretch to predict that November ’09 will be a stronger month than the same month in ’08.

Looking at the bigger picture, there are a total of 37 homes that are pending sale right now in San Carlos.  That’s a very healthy number, and it bodes well for at least the next couple of  months sales figures.  However…  the current inventory of active listings right now sits at a paltry 45.   Unless that figure increases significantly in the upcoming months, this growth trend will be nothing more than a blip.

Stay tuned…

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