Summary of Q3 2010.
As we discussed in the San Carlos Mid-Year Report, 2010 has been shaping up to be a rebound year for San Carlos real estate. After two years of dreadful economic news and declining home sales, 2010 has been showing signs that this trend may reverse itself this year. With three quarters of the year now in the books, 2010 is indeed shaping up to be a bounce-back year in just about every metric — home sales, pending sales, and average sales price have all shown significant increases from 2009.
Here’s a more in-depth look at the third quarter of 2010 in the San Carlos real estate market:
By the Numbers.
Here’s the monthly data for single family home sales in San Carlos through September of 2010:
Here is the most recent quarter in a little more depth…
|Key Metrics||Q3 2010||Previous Quarter||Q3 2009|
|Median Price||$959,700||$895,000 (+7.2%)||$865,000 (+10.9%)|
|Average Price||$990,887||$985,159 (+0.6%)||$891,960 (+11.1%)|
|No. of Sales||65||75 (-13.3%)||61 (+6.6%)|
|Pended Properties||71||76 (-6.6%)||64 (+10.9%)|
|Active||59||62 (-4.8%)||65 (-9.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||100.2%||100.4% (-0.2%)||98.3% (+2.0%)|
|Days on Market||28||34 (-17.5%)||43 (-35.7%)|
Just like last the analysis we did last quarter, Q3’10 was stronger than the same quarter in 2009 in just about every respect. A few things pop out from these numbers:
- The number of homes sold and pended increased from the year-ago quarter, despite lower inventory to choose from.
- Average sales price and median price both increased, indicating that prices similar sized homes are continuing to climb.
- Days on the Market figures plummeted from a year ago, which is another good indication that buyers were purchasing with conviction in Q3.
One month in particular stood out in Q3: August. Traditionally, August takes a significant dip in pending sales simply because many people are out of town squeezing in that last vacation. But in 2010, August pending sales were just as strong as July! Much of this can be attributed to people pushing to find a home and get their kids registered for the new school year in San Carlos. The San Carlos School District cited a huge surge of new applications in late summer of this year, which backs up this data.
Here’s a very high-level view of the San Carlos real estate market so far in 2010:
It’s safe to say that 2010 be the year that ends the 2-year decline in home sales in San Carlos. With only 3 months remaining in the year, the chart above will look very much the same when we do this analysis again at the end of the year, which will be a nice change from the past two years. But the upcoming quarter won’t be without its challenges. Traditionally a slow period, Q4 is really just half a quarter since the market really ramps down after Thanksgiving. At that point in the year, most sellers will just choose to wait until after the holidays to list their home, and only the most serious buyers are still out looking during this time.
The slowdown is already noticeable. With a few exceptions, buyers seem to be much more deliberate in their buying decision as they patiently wait for more inventory to roll out. And with the new school year well underway, there’s not the urgent buying push that we saw in July and August. As before, the market is influenced by interest rates and the unemployment as much as any other factor, so those two metrics will play a key role in the upcoming quarters.
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