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What is Behind the Inventory Surge in San Carlos?

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A Spike in New Listings.

Does it seem like there have been more homes on the market recently in San Carlos than what you’ve been accustomed to seeing? Do inventory levels seem to be sitting at higher levels than you recall in recent years?

It’s not your imagination. There has been an interesting swing in the San Carlos real estate market over the past 60 days that has had a profound effect on the local real estate market, from inventory levels all the way to the mindset of the buyers who are in the market for these homes.

As I have written about numerous times in the past on this site, the San Carlos residential real estate market has been suffering from a trend of declining listings for the past 3 years straight. If you read this blog on a normal basis, you’re familiar with this chart:

 

SC New Listings through 2015

What this chart shows you is that San Carlos has been in a significant downward trend for single family home listings since all the way back in 2011, when we were emerging from the recession and there were nearly 400 homes listed for sale.  The 256 listings that we saw in San Carlos in 2015 not only represented the lowest number in all history recorded in the MLS, but was also a stunning 34% drop in just 4 short years. It’s one of many reasons why home prices have seen stratospheric growth over the last half decade.

As we headed into 2016, the downward trend continued. For the three months of this, new listings were tracking even lower than the record low that we saw only the year before, which seemed to be an impossibility (see below).

But then something started to noticeably change about 60 days ago.

 

San Carlos New Listings through 5-16

 

This chart shows the new listings by month through the end of may for both 2015 and 2016. At the end of March 2016, we were sitting at a total of 57 new listing year to date — which represented a drop of 16.2% from the record low registered in 2015. By all indications, we were clearly headed for another listing drought.

But in April, things began to change quite rapidly.

If you sensed that there were suddenly a huge uptick in new listings in San Carlos in the last couple of months, you were correct.  Starting in April, we saw a huge and immediate surge in new listings that has continued right through the end of May.

In just the last 60 days, 78 new single family residence listings hit the market in San Carlos, or basically more than one new listing every day.  To put that number into perspective, it’s 37% more than the first 90 days of the year combined. It also drove the rate of new listings from being 16% below the prior year, to 10% higher — all in just two months.

The Market Reaction.

The effect of this sudden surge was noticeable on a number of fronts. The most obvious was inventory levels. A market that could barely sustain inventory levels in the low teens was suddenly sitting at 20 or more listings for weeks on end, with a peak of 29 registered just last week. We are sitting at 23 today. While these figures are more in line with a normal Spring real estate levels, it has been a long time since the local market has had this many homes to digest.

The other noticeable factor has been the change in psyche of the home buyers who are in this market right now. Whether its because there are simply more homes to choose from, or perhaps the belief that a flood of new inventory will be coming, there is a palpable reduction in the sense of urgency with buyers lately.

It’s distinctly measurable in the drop in the number of offers that each sale is getting across the board.  Hot homes that would have fetched 8-10 offers just 6 months ago are getting half as many… or maybe only one. And some homes are simply sitting without offers at all — and these are quality homes that would have had no problem selling just a few months ago.

But it’s also noticeable in comments that I hear from buyers at open houses. They simply don’t feel as “under the gun” as they did last year, and consequently they are circling the market with much more deliberation — perhaps seeing if this trend will continue in their favor.

Behind the Numbers.

The big question that needs to be answered is this — why are there suddenly so many new listings? There is an undeniable sense that some sellers simply believe the market is reaching the top, and those that have had their finger on the trigger for the past two years are pulling it. Over half of the listings I will market this year will be buyers who are moving completely out of the area, not just across town.

Some residents are also fed up with some of the side-effects of a booming local economy; unmanageable traffic, increasing cost of living, and the unavoidable change in the “look and feel” of the San Carlos that they were fond of (more on that last topic later this week), and have decided to pull up root and find a more relaxed pace of life elsewhere.

But whatever the reasons may be, home buyers have been enjoying market conditions for the past two months that they have not seen since the Recession.

Whether that’s a temporary blip or a longer term trend remains to be seen.
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Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5/30/2016.

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The Scoop.

Happy Memorial Day, San Carlos! We are nearing the end of what has been an extremely busy month for San Carlos residential real estate. Even this past week saw quite a bit of activity, despite the fact that we were heading into a long weekend and many people opt to get out of Dodge a little early.

There were nine new single family residence listings to hit the market last week in San Carlos, which is a strong number considering the pace of new listings that we have seen so far this year. But an equal number of homes also went into contract during the same time period, thus keeping our inventory at the roughly the same level as the prior week. But regardless of the activity, it’s still a bit surprising to see the inventory sitting in the mid-high 2o range for as many weeks as it has. I will publishing some stats later this week that may give us a good idea why this is happening.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 5/29/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 5/29/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 6 4
Average Sold Price: $2,018,667 $2,088,750
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $907 $838
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 102% 109%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 13 7
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 36 32
No. of New Listings: 9 6
Total # of Active Listings: 24 25
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,858,447 $1,989,611
Average DOM of Active Listings: 21 21
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $849 $871
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.67 : 1 0.8 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5/23/2016.

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The Scoop.

Home buyers stole the stage last week in San Carlos. There were almost twice as many single-family homes that went into contract (10) than there were new listings (6). This served to pull the inventory of homes for sale down a bit to 24 homes. That’s still higher than what we have been accustomed to for most of this spring, and it will still be a bit of a challenge to digest all of these listings. But clearly, buyers were out in droves last week looking at homes. It’s either that they are pushing to lock up their purchase before the summer vacation months hit, or they simply have more time now to seriously look for a home. Either way, the activity is definitely up, and should continue into next week.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 5/22/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 5/22/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 4 4
Average Sold Price: $2,088,750 $2,030,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $838 $1,072
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 109% 114%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 7 15
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 32 25
No. of New Listings: 6 9
Total # of Active Listings: 24 29
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,989,611 $1,905,159
Average DOM of Active Listings: 21 20
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $871 $875
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.8 : 1 1.2 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Don’t miss a single update!
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5/16/2016.

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The Scoop.

The listing machine was in high gear again last week in San Carlos, which should come as welcome relief to home buyers. Nine new listings debuted on the market, and with only five homes going into contract, the inventory of single family homes in San Carlos now stands at 29. This continues to be the highest sustainable inventory level that we have seen in several years, and along with the average of 20 days on the market for this inventory, it indicates that certain homes are simply not selling as fast as they were only a few months ago.

This does not mean that all homes are taking longer to sell. All five homes that went pending last week did so in about 2 weeks or less. So it’s clear that homes that are priced well and in good locations are still selling relatively quickly. The market is being extremely selective on those that are not.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 5/15/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 5/15/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 4 5
Average Sold Price: $2,030,000 $2,151,900
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $1,072 $1,087
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 114% 98%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 15 11
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 25 24
No. of New Listings: 9 12
Total # of Active Listings: 29 26
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,905,159 $1,850,139
Average DOM of Active Listings: 20 17
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $875 $855
Active-Pending Ratio: 1.2 : 1 1.1 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Don’t miss a single update!
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5/9/2016.

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The Scoop.

It’s obvious that the “Sell Your Home Now” memo got out to San Carlos home owners this past week. Between Monday and Friday of last week, 12 new listings flooded the market — most of them seemed to hit on Friday. That temporarily pushed the inventory up to 29 single-family homes for sale throughout the city. Both of those were high marks for San Carlos in 2016, by far.

Buyers were not idle last week either. Eight homes went into contract, with three of those eight being locked up in a week or less from the listing date. That settled the inventory down to 26 homes for sale at the time of this post.

Sold pricing faced some downward pressure, which is not something we’ve seen recently. The 5 homes that sold during the prior week only fetched an average of 98% of the asking price, and only one of the five actually fetched a sales price that was above the asking price.  That is certainly more severe that what’s happening in the market right now, but you will certainly start to see more homes selling below their asking price than what we have grown accustomed to in this crazy uphill market.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 5/8/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 5/8/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 7
Average Sold Price: $2,151,900 $1,818,875
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $1,087 $924
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 98% 105%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 14
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 24 18
No. of New Listings: 12 7
Total # of Active Listings: 26 23
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,850,139 $1,938,116
Average DOM of Active Listings: 17 21
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $855 $797
Active-Pending Ratio: 1.1 : 1 1.3 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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Love Your Home – While You’re Still In It.

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Show It Some Love.

How many times have you seen someone work so hard to get their home all primped up and perfectly dialed in — just in time to sell it?  The paint is perfect inside and out, the landscaping is refreshed, the windows are clean, and even the furniture in the house has been strategically aligned to make the house look like it belongs in Sunset Magazine?  You see it all the time, right?

Well, the seller of one of my recent listings noted that exact phenomenon, but added this very brilliant observation:

Why don’t people do this while they’re still living in the house? 

Seriously — why not do this while you’re still living in the home so that you can fall in love with your home again and enjoy the transformation, and not just make it perfect for the next owner?

It’s an interesting idea, and there are probably a hundred different reasons why people don’t do it.  Here are just a few:

  • They think it’s too expensive.
  • They don’t have the time.
  • They don’t want to invest the money and then have the kids trash it the very next day.
  • They don’t know who to call to do the work.
  • …..and so on.

I help my clients do this all the time when they are getting their homes ready to sell, so I’m a great resource to help line up the right people to spruce your home up — even if it’s just getting your windows and screens cleaned, or having someone come in an make your tired landscaping POP again. I’ve got someone for just about any task you could possibly think of.

From a cost standpoint, it’s often much less than you think it is, too. Cleaning an entire household of windows (inside and out) along with screens runs no more than a couple hundred dollars, and they look spectacular when they’re done.  There’s no way you can do all that yourself for that cheap and make them look so good.

The same goes with painting.  Nothing freshens up the inside of a house like a new coat of paint. If you really want to make a dramatic splash, try a bold NEW color! Interior painting is quick and easy if you have a good crew. They can literally transform the inside of your house while you’re gone for a weekend.

Even your deck needs love every so often. There are few things that have a more dramatic visual effect than power-washing and re-staining a deck.  It will actually make you want to use it that much more often.

Get ‘er Done.

As we approach the summer months, it’s the perfect time to take on these “transformation projects”.  Many of the real estate related trades slow down during June-August, so it’s much easier to book and schedule them. With some intelligent scheduling, you’d be amazed at what can be accomplished in a very short amount of time.

For my most recent listing, we literally had 4 different crews working on the house, simultaneously when we could get away with it, and we completely transformed the entire property (inside and out) in less than a week.

Think about it — you head out for your summer vacation, and come back to what feels like a brand new house! It’s easier than you think, and only a single phone call away.

Interested? Contact me!
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Don’t miss a single update!
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5/2/2016.

MayCalendar

The Scoop.

For the second straight week, the San Carlos residential real estate market was running at a very high pace. There were seven really nice listings to jump into fray, and six of the homes in the existing inventory were locked up into contract. Even the market for townhouses and condos saw about double the activity compared to a normal week.

You can expect to see more of the same of this kind of activity now that we are entering the last full month of the Spring real estate market.  May always affords us a long stretch of uninterrupted sales time — all of the Spring breaks are finally done, and the next big distraction isn’t until the end of the month when Memorial Day weekend reminds everyone that summer is right around corner. Anyone who is interested in getting their home sold before the summer break hits really needs to do so in the next 2-3 weeks, so look for a steady flow of inventory each week this month.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 5/1/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 5/1/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 8 8
Average Sold Price: $1,818,875 $1,704,500
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $924 $931
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 105% 114%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 14 17
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 18 19
No. of New Listings: 7 9
Total # of Active Listings: 23 24
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,938,116 $1,936,607
Average DOM of Active Listings: 21 20
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $797 $844
Active-Pending Ratio: 1.3 : 1 1.3 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Don’t miss a single update!
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4/25/2016.

2016 Calendar

The Scoop.

The pace of new listings definitely picked up last week in San Carlos. Nine new single-family homes debuted on the market, and two townhouse/condo units also jumped into fray. This is not a surprise, since we are essentially right in the thick of the Spring real estate market, and we generally see a spike around this time.

Home prices are holding their own, as is evidenced by the data on closed sales from last week. These homes garnered an average of 14% above the asking price, with most of them pulling in 6-figure premiums. This indicates that strong buyers are still out there looking for the right home in San Carlos. Even homes that have been on the market for 21 days or more are starting to see renewed interest, so there are still definitely more buyers than there are sellers in this market.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

The Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the 7-day period ending Sunday 4/24/2016:

San Carlos Housing Data 4/24/16 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 8 5
Average Sold Price: $1,704,500 $1,434,200
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $931 $970
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 114% 112%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 17 9
Total # of Homes Pending Sale: 19 22
No. of New Listings: 9 6
Total # of Active Listings: 24 21
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,936,607 $2,183,934
Average DOM of Active Listings: 20 21
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $844 $899
Active-Pending Ratio: 1.3 : 1 0.95 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to to the White Oaks Blog — the most widely read blog dedicated to the San Carlos real estate market! Have blog updates sent to you automatically by subscribing for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Don’t miss a single update!
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