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San Carlos Residential Real Estate Recap for the First Half of 2015.

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Fewer Listings, Higher Prices.

If you had to capture the essence of the San Carlos residential real estate market for the first half of 2015 in as few words as possible, then that header above pretty much does it. So far, 2015 has clearly been a seller’s market, just as 2014 was. We have witnessed home prices rising to breathtaking heights all along the Peninsula as even more extremely well qualified buyers entered the market and competed for fewer available listings.

The net result of these conditions is a perfect case study in economics: High demand coupled with low supply means that prices are going to go up. And they have certainly been going up here in San Carlos.

The first chart below shows that the average and median prices for all residential properties sold in San Carlos (single-family residences, townhomes, and condos) have hit an all time high for the first half of this year. Even though the data only shows the past 8 years, you can safely assume that these are the all-time high points for either one of these metrics.

To put this growth into perspective, the average cost of a residential property in San Carlos has risen by 12% since just last year, and a mind-blowing 73% since the depth of the recession in 2009:

Average and Median Prices: All San Carlos Residential Properties

Average and Median Prices: All San Carlos Residential Properties

When the data is normalized on a price per square foot basis, the results are essentially the same. This means that prices are high across the board for all homes in San Carlos, regardless of the size.  And remember, this data is for all residential properties – homes, townhomes, and condos:

SC PPSF

Price per Square Foot: All San Carlos Residential Properties

What’s the catalyst behind these staggering prices? Aside from the booming local economy, the lack of available homes for sale has resulted in bidding wars for virtually every home that hit the market this year. This is a trend that I have been tracking closely all year, and it has been evident that 2015 is on pace to have the lowest number of new listings in a very long time.

With half of the year in now the books, this trend has held true. The chart below shows the number of new listings in the first 6 months of 2015, and compares it to the same 6-month time period over the past 10 years. The 189 new residential listings recorded in San Carlos during the first six months of 2015 is down 19% from the same period last year, and represents the lowest total for that period of time for any year this past decade.

2015 New Listings in San Carlos: All Residential Properties

New Listings in San Carlos: All Residential Properties, First 6 Months of the Year.

So if you’ve felt in your gut that there have been fewer homes to choose from this year in San Carlos, you can rest assured that your intuition was statistically correct.

What Lies Ahead?

That seems to be the question that is on everyone’s mind who follows the local real estate market. After 3-4 years of unabated growth, everyone is wondering whether prices are going to continue to rise, or if the market is on the verge of pricing itself out of the affordability range of most buyers.  Here are my observations on what’s happening right now in the market, and what the impact on the real estate market may be in the second half of 2015:

  1. Current Market Conditions.  The market right now in San Carlos has slowed perceptibly from the breakneck pace that we witnessed in the Spring market. Part of this is to be expected, since the market always takes a breather from mid-June until mid-August. But every year when we feel the foot come off the gas, that nagging question creeps back in — is the market changing? The events in Greece and the recent volatility in the stock market are raising more than a few eyebrows, and there have been some widely publicized predictions that both the stock market and real estate market are prime for  a correction.
  2. Interest Rates.  For the first time since the Recession ended, we can say with certainty that mortgage interest rates are indeed going to rise. It’s no longer a matter of “if”, but of “when”. And based on the latest Federal Reserve meetings, it could happen as early as this Fall. Although rates have crept upward slightly over the past few weeks in anticipation of such a move, look for the market to react more visibly when the Fed formally announces its move.
  3. Local Job Market. There’s no indication that I’ve seen that the local high-tech fueled economy is slowing down, which should mean that more buyers will be back in the market this Fall. But if the technology job hiring slows down, look for that to have a negative impact on the market.
  4. Stock Market.  The fact that the major stock indices are sitting at or near all-time high levels is great news for home buyers, since much of their purchasing power is directly related to their equity positions. If something in the local or worldwide economy triggers a pull-back in the stock market, though, this would certainly curtail the buying power of many active home buyers. The market has shown in recent weeks to be a little twitchy with the ongoing Greece and European financial issues, so there is some understandable uneasiness with the current stock market heights.

The first few weeks of the Fall market will be a telltale indication of the health of the local real estate market. That period historically started after the Labor Day weekend, but with school starting seemingly earlier every year, the Fall real estate market will start organize itself in mid-late August when vacations have ended and school has started up again.

Stay tuned to the blog in the coming months.  I’ll be watching the market very closely to look for signs of changes. It’s going to be a very interesting Summer!

 

 
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 7-5-15.

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I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July weekend. It’s Monday, and time to get back to reality!

If there will ever be a part of this year where the momentum may swing slightly back in favor of home buyers, this next 5-6 weeks is probably going to be it. This is the time of year where buyers enjoy the unique combination of having the least amount of competition while there is still decent inventory to choose from. There have already been reports in the past week of homes in San Carlos and Belmont that have only gotten one offer – or none at all – once offer dates have been set. This is a sign that there are either fewer buyers in the market, or that the buyers that are out there have suddenly gotten a lot more picky. Whatever the reason is, this simply wasn’t happening just a few months ago.

Home owners who decide to sell during the summer months will wisely choose to avoid the 4th of July weekend, so you can expect to see a bump in new listings over the next couple of weeks since we have now passed that date. Home buyers that stay on task may be rewarded in the coming weeks.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 7-5-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 7-5-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 3 2
Average Sold Price: $1,465,000 $1,605,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $860 $763
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 105% 113%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 13 55
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 25 22
No. of New Listings: 4 4
Total # of Active Listings: 9 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,714,889 $1,910,535
Average DOM of Active Listings: 19 19
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $726 $737
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.36 : 1 0.50 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-28-15.

July

There’s no doubt about it – the real estate market in San Carlos has certainly cooled down a bit over the past two weeks. The attendance at open houses has been lighter, and homes that are on the market now don’t seem to be getting the frenzied response they might have gotten only a month or so ago.

The numbers reflect this slowdown as well.  The average days on the market (DOM) of all active single-family residence listings in San Carlos is now at 19 days — certainly not an eternity for most real estate markets, but probably the longest we’ve seen all year in our local market.

Much of this may be attributed to the traditional seasonal slowing that has been discussed numerous times in this weekly post. But we will be closely watching the market over the summer months to see if there isn’t more to this trend. After 3+ years of breakneck growth, there are those who believe the market is due to level off in the coming months as the economic growth tapers, and interest rates finally start to climb.

This reduced competition presents a golden opportunity for buyers who are still diligently looking for a home during the summer months. It’s going to be an interesting summer…

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-28-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-28-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 2 7
Average Sold Price: $1,605,000 $1,257,857
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $763 $783
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 113% 118%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 55 17
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 22 20
No. of New Listings: 4 4
Total # of Active Listings: 11 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,910,535 $1,846,727
Average DOM of Active Listings: 19 16
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $737 $711
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.50 : 1 0.55 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-21-15.

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The June Swoon that we have been experiencing since the beginning of this month continued in earnest last week. Only 3 homes were put into contract, and one of them had been on and off the market for over two months. Granted, there still isn’t a huge inventory being built up while buyers decide what they want to do — only 4 new listings tested the market last week which only offset what went into contract — but there are still some very nice homes on the market that some smart buyers are going snatch up.

For home buyers, this is just about the exact scenario that you’ve been waiting for all year — less buying pressure, and less competition. Once we get a reasonable bump in inventory, your persistence may pay off for you as we head into the summer months.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-21-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-21-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 7 5
Average Sold Price: $1,257,857 $1,736,300
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $783 $826
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 118% 110%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 17 13
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 20 24
No. of New Listings: 4 5
Total # of Active Listings: 11 9
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,846,727 $1,895,556
Average DOM of Active Listings: 16 20
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $711 $757
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.55 : 1 0.38 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-14-15.

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One of the changes that is common to see around this time of year is that the number offers that each property fetches tends to drop from what you might see in the peak months of March-May.  This makes sense, because when the calendar hits June, many buyers hit the road. And if it’s not vacation that’s beckoning, it’s the multitude of graduations and weddings that are pulling at everyone’s time.

It’s important to note this, because what is not happening right now with this decrease in offers is a decrease in purchase prices. Quite the contrary – although the homes that went pending over the past two weeks fetched fewer offers, there was definitely no signs of weakness in the prices that these homes fetched, as you will see when the sales prices are posted on the blog in the coming weeks.

It’s important for buyers to not get lulled into a sense of complacency if they are only up against 1-2 other offers on a particular property, because it’s clear from the market performance that a decrease in the number of offers is not causing a decrease in the final price.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-14-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-14-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 3
Average Sold Price: $1,736,300 $1,551,933
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $826 $909
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 110% 106%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 13 9
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 24 22
No. of New Listings: 5 6
Total # of Active Listings: 9 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,895,556 $1,962,364
Average DOM of Active Listings: 20 20
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $757 $770
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.38 : 1 0.50 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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New San Carlos Listing: 1985 Saint Francis Way.

The Very Best of White Oaks.

I am thrilled to announce my latest San Carlos listing at 1985 Saint Francis Way! This stately 2,416 square foot White Oaks home not only has that elusive 4th bedroom that is so difficult to find in the flats of San Carlos, but it also the other sought-after rooms that buyers really expect in a home this size: A formal dining room, separate spacious living room, a family room, and a kitchen nook that is adjacent to the kitchen. This home checks all of those boxes and more.

This home features a very intelligent and functional floor plan, with 3 of bedrooms and 2 of the bathrooms on the upper level, and a full bedroom and bathroom on the ground level.  This makes it the perfect setup for an extended visit from a guest, or as a home office.  The spacious open kitchen features granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and a brand a new tile floor and backsplash. Adjacent to the kitchen is a wide-open area that can serve a variety of functions, such as a breakfast nook.

Situated on a beautiful 5,500 square foot flat lot, there is ample room for all of your outdoor activities.  The large, 2-car garage is detached and located at the rear of the property.  The curb appeal of this neighborhood is absolutely fabulous, and you’re close to everywhere you want to be in San Carlos.

Here are a few photos of this magnificent home:

–> For the full gallery of all of the photos, click here.

3D Virtual Tour.

As I do with all of my listings, there is a state-of-the-art 3D scan of the home that allows you to take a virtual “walk” through any room in the home, and also gives you a birds-eye view of the layout of the home. Be sure to click on the window below and take this marvelous tool for a spin:

–> You can also view the 3D Virtual Tour in a separate window by clicking here.

Open House

This fantastic home is listed at $1,848,000. It’s not very often that a beautiful 4-bedroom home like this pops up in White Oaks, so don’t miss the opportunity to see it!  It will be open this Saturday and Sunday (6/13-14) from 1:00-4:00 on both days.
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-7-15.

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The activity level seemed to tick downward a bit this past week in San Carlos, perhaps because of all of the graduations, or maybe everyone is getting ready to get out of Dodge for a few weeks. There were only two homes to go into contract, and six new listings made their entry onto the market which pushed the number of homes for sale to 11 as of this morning.

From what I can gather as I talk to title reps and property inspectors — people who generally are involved early in the sales process — there is still a pretty healthy pipeline of new listings that will be hitting the market before summer sets in, both in San Carlos as well as up and down the Peninsula. Buyers should definitely stay tuned into the market over the next several weeks.

I will have one nice listing coming up in White Oaks later this week, so keep tuned into the site for more detail!

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-7-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-7-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 3 9
Average Sold Price: $1,551,933 $1,594,944
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $909 $1,063
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 106% 116%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 9 8
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 22 23
No. of New Listings: 6 2
Total # of Active Listings: 11 7
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,962,364 $2,342,143
Average DOM of Active Listings: 20 25
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $770 $709
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.50 : 1 0.30 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 5-31-15.

June

Don’t look now, but May is gone and June is now here. It’s hard to believe the year is flying by so quickly, but perhaps the lack of key changes in our environment (rain, inventory, etc..) makes every week feel the same. But at a time of the year where we would expect to see a peak in the inventory of homes for sale, we are seeing the exact opposite in San Carlos. As of this morning’s post, there are only 7 single family homes on the market in the entire city.

That number will take a slight bump upward later this morning when a couple of nice new 3BR listings on Greenwood Avenue and Chestnut Street hit the market. And the fact that several property inspectors that I spoke with are booked solid for at least two weeks tells me that there will be a late Spring push before the market takes its normal summer snooze. I know there’s always a certain amount of “buyer fatigue” this time of year from watching prices escalate continuously, and from losing out on multiple bids. But there is also a ton of events around this time of year — graduations and vacations — that compete with the mind share of home buyers, and those buyers who stay on task and move quickly can often can take advantage of these distractions to their benefit.

In the stats below, take a close look at the insane performance of the 9 homes that closed escrow this past week. The average price per square foot of all nine homes was a whopping $1,063/sq foot. And largely because three of these homes sold off market, the average days on market for all nine homes was only 8 days. That‘s a hot market.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 5-31-2015:

San Carlos Housing Data 5-31-15 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 9 6
Average Sold Price: $1,594,944 $1,730,833
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $1,063 $791
Average Sold as Percentage Of List Price: 116% 110%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 8 14
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 23 26
No. of New Listings: 2 2
Total # of Active Listings: 7 10
Average Price of Active Listings: $2,342,143 $2,102,295
Average DOM of Active Listings: 25 18
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $709 $784
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.30 : 1 0.38 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
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