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San Carlos Home Mortgage Rates are Creeping Upward.

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On the Rise.

What was easily the most talked about topic this past week in real estate circles was the home mortgage interest rates — specifically, the fact that they’re on the rise.   We’re not talking about a little temporary blip of 1/8 or 1/4 of a point.   This latest rise has been a steady climb of the base rates over the past two weeks.   A spot check of the 30-year fixed jumbo loan (loan values from $625,500 – $2,000,000) shows an average jump of nearly 0.5 point.   This is a very relevant datapoint since this loan is rapidly becoming the one of choice in a market of $1M+ homes.

That increase not sound like much, but when you consider that rates were recently in the high 3% range, that represents an increase of about 13% in just two weeks.   And it was such noticeable uptick that it prompted an article in the San Jose Mercury News, which is well worth reading.

All About the Bonds.

What got us our rock-bottom low interest rates in the first place is the very reason that they’re on the rise right now:  Bonds.  Back when the market plummeted in 2008 (gee, that wasn’t so long ago!!), the Federal Reserve embarked upon an aggressive bond buying spree in an effort to stabilize the bond market and keep long-term interest rates low.  This policy has been in place since the crash, but it was never intended to be a permanent action by the Fed.   There was never a question of if the Fed was going to extract itself from the bond buy-back market, only when.

Those who watch this market far more closely that I do are speculating that indeed that time may be upon us in the coming months.   Recent comments that have been swirling around the Federal Reserve seem to indicate that national economy may finally be at the point where it makes sense to “loosen the training wheels”, if you will, and let the economy stand more on its own.   If the Federal Reserves takes an official stance that it will reduce it’s buy-back rate, then bond rates will almost certainly rise — and will take home mortgage rates along with it.

Effect on the Local Market?

What effect will an increase in interest rates have on the San Carlos real estate market?  There’s no easy answer to that question, because everyone will be impacted differently.   As a general rule of thumb, as rates increase, buying power decreases.   But the degree of this effect is highly dependent on how much money is being borrowed.  The buying power for someone who is leveraging as much of the bank’s money as possible is going to be impacted far more significantly than a buyer who has a 50% down payment.   For a buyer who is borrowing 75% on a $2,000,000 purchase, the recent 0.5 point increase alone knocked out about $200,000 of their buying power.  That’s pretty significant.

But as we’ve seen so far this year, buyers in the San Carlos market have brought unprecedented amounts of cash to the table for their home purchases, so it’s hard to speculate how much of a damper this will be for those buyers.

The other factor to consider is demand.  No matter what happens, there are still far more home buyers than there are available homes to buy.  Even if an uptick in rates serves to shake the fringe buyers back into renting, we will still be in a seller’s market until that balance is achieved.   Even as late as last week, there was no indication that multiple offers are going away any time soon.

If there is a positive effect to the rate increase, it will be a stabilizing effect in home prices.  That is obviously not what home sellers want to hear, but in the broad scope of the health of the economy it’s probably just what the doctor ordered.   San Carlos home prices have been on an absolute tear since mid-2012, which has prompted many to bring back the “B” word when discussing the housing market — Bubble.  Home owners have seen their home values appreciate as much as 30% or more during that short time, so there should be no tears shed if the values start to level off a bit.   And it’s in everyone’s best interest to avoid a bubble market — it was only 6 short years ago when the last bubble left many homeowners without a chair to sit on when the music suddenly stopped.

September 1: A Big Day.

The next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for around September 1.  In that meeting, many anticipate the Fed will discuss and ultimately take an official position on their bond buy-back strategy.   Much of the uptick in rates that we’re seeing lately is actually in anticipation of the decisions that will be made in this meeting.  And the recent actions tell me that institutions are hedging that Fed will definitely start to slowly wean itself from the home mortgage business.

Stay tuned..
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Summertime Blues for the Housing Market in San Carlos?

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Siesta Time?

School’s out, and we’re now finishing our first “official” full week of summer.  That means that vacations are starting, kids are in camp, or they’re simply home 24/7 driving you crazy.  Whatever the distraction may be,  we are heading into a period of the year where the real estate market normally begins to lose some steam from the annual Spring push.  The focus tends to steer away from home buying and selling and consequenty, July and August are two of the slower months for new listings and pending sales in all of the local communities in the Bay Area.

Once Labor Day weekend rolls around,  the vacations are over,  the kids are back in school, and buyers once again get focused on finding a home in the few short months before the holidays set in.  This results in an uptick in the market between Labor Day and Thanksgiving.

Here’s a chart of the San Carlos real estate market from just last year which demonstrates exactly what I’m talking about:

San Carlos: 2012 New Listings and Pending Sales.

San Carlos: 2012 New Listings and Pending Sales.

 

Regardless of the historical year that you pick, the basic shape of this chart looks about the same.  The peaks and valleys may be a bit more dramatic, but one trend holds true just about every year:  The real estate market in San Carlos generally takes a snooze in July and August.

Here’s why it’s probably not going to happen this year:

Not This Year.

The very same elements that have made 2013 a watershed year in real estate will keep the market humming through the summer months, but with a slight twist.  Here they are again:

  1. High Demand.  Even as late as last week, homes were still fetching multiple offers and selling in the first week — regardless of the price range.   Whether it’s a fixer-upper like 131 Alberta Avenue at $879,000 or a $2,098,000 beautifully renovated home at 108 Wildwood Avenue,  most homes in San Carlos are still being hotly contested, which signifies that we have yet to quench the buyer’s demand for housing in San Carlos.
  2. Low Inventory.   Despite the recent surges in new listings in San Carlos, today we’re sitting on 19 active listings in the entire city.  We’re normally carrying 2.5 times that amount as we enter the summer months.   The inventory has only breached the 30-mark once this year, and that was only for a couple of days.   By far the biggest factor that could keep the market in the doldrums this summer is if sellers opt to wait for the fall to list their homes.
  3. Interest Rates.   Low interest rates were the fuel of the upswing in the market over the past 12 months.   Despite the boom in employment and wealth in the Bay Area, rates have remained at astonishingly low levels throughout this entire year.  But here’s the twist — buyers and sellers who have been warily watching the mortgage market over the past few weeks have seen a succession of increases in home mortgage rates, signifying that the end of nearly-free money may be coming.   And that has ratcheted up the urgency with buyers looking to lock in and close their deal at the lowest possible rates before things head north.

Time to List?

In a normal year, a home seller would normally follow the sage advice of their agent and hold off on listing their home in July or August, and wait to catch the upswing in the market that always ensues after Labor Day weekend.  But this year the real estate market in San Carlos is completely oblivious to the calendar, and sellers who put their sign in the ground over the summer months should still be handsomely rewarded.

If all three elements outlined above remain in place, the real estate market in San Carlos will literally plow right through the summer months.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-22-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

The topic of the this past week was definitely interest rates.  Many lenders bumped up their 15 and 30-year fixed rates by anywhere from .25 to .5, which definitely caught the attention of home buyers who have not wrapped up a home purchase yet.  This should not come as a surprise to anyone, since it’s been known for quite some time that rates are not going to remain at rock bottom levels forever.  It should not be a cause for panic, either, since even with this slight upward tick rates are incredibly low in comparison to the decade-long average.  And there’s nothing preventing the rates from easing back downward again.  The economy in the rest of the country is not doing nearly as well as we are here in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-22-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-22-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
12 7
Average Sold Price
$1,218,445 $1,483,429
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$675 $613
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 114% 98%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 13 11
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 33 39
Inventory of Active Listings:
18 22
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,503,667 $1,438,143
Average DOM of Active Listings: 29 23
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $602 $605
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.55 : 1 0.56 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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The Price of Dirt in San Carlos.

Vacant Lot

Rehab or Tear Down?

There comes a point in the life of many properties in San Carlos where its value is driven more by its dirt, rather than the structure that sits on it.  That’s a polite and roundabout way of saying that the home has become a tear-down.  With a significant chunk of the housing stock in White Oaks and Howard Park now reaching 65+ years — much of which has seen only a few owners — we’re running into more and more of these homes where it makes more sense to just scrape the lot and start over, rather than try to rehabilitate the existing structure.

For these cases, it’s critically important to understand the value of the dirt that the structure sits on.  Because it really doesn’t matter if there’s a just a chicken coop sitting on the property — the size and the location of the dirt will drive the value of the property, NOT the condition house that sits on it.  And if you’re not tuned into the difference, it’s very easy to incorrectly price a property that you think has very little value.

And you’ll probably be shocked to see what dirt is fetching in San Carlos these days.

Size, Location, and Build-ability.

Before we dive into what prices some tear-downs are fetching, it’s important to understand what buyers are looking for in a patch of dirt.  There are three basic elements that determine how desirable a piece of property may be:  Size, Location, and “Build-ability”, which I think is a word that I just made up.

  1. Size:  According to the San Carlos Municipal Code, the maximum allowable lot-coverage for a home on a relatively flat lot is 40%.  That figure de-rates slightly as the slope of the lot increases.   This means that if you were to look directly down on the lot, the entire ground floor of the structure — including the garage — cannot exceed 40% of the lot size.   If you need more square footage beyond that, you either need to get a variance, or add a second floor.    So when you consider that most people who are planning on doing a ground-up re-build would like to build a 2,500-3,500 square foot home, the bigger the lot, the better.   Consequently, the minimum that buyers are looking at for this purpose starts at around 6,000 square feet.
  2. Location:  Let’s face it…A tear-down on White Oak Way will be worth far more than the exact same structure on San Carlos Avenue.  So location is a huge factor when people look to build their dream home.   Quiet streets with great curb appeal are high on everyone’s list.   And being in the flats close to downtown seems to be a huge plus for buyers.
  3. Build-ability:  Just because you’ve found a 7,000 square feet in White Oaks doesn’t mean it’s automatically a good fit for a new structure.  The shape of the lot is also a big factor.  Some large lots have an abnormal shape which takes away much of the benefit of its size.   The house at 1383 Chestnut Street is a prime example of just that.   And corner lots also have their own unique limitations because they’re bordered by streets on 2 sides.   Generally speaking, the more geometrically proper (i.e. square or rectangular) that a lot is, the more build-able it is.

So now that you’ve found the perfect lot to build your dream home, what is the tear-down worth?

Million Dollar Dirt.

This may or may not shock you, but the going rate for a 6,000+ square foot flat rectangular lot on a good street in either Howard Park or White Oaks is now over $1Mregardless of what is sitting on it.   And the larger the lot, the further over $1M it will fetch.  We are seeing more and more sales recently that confirm this recent phenomenon.

When you do a bottoms-up analysis, that price makes total sense.  If you use the figure of approximately $275/sq foot for new construction, a 2,500 sq foot house would cost $687,500 to build.    The aggregate cost for the lot and construction for a this brand new 2,500 sq foot house is $1,687,500.  But in this market, the finished product would be worth well more than that.  So paying a million dollars or more for the lot is very justifiable in this market.

As I mentioned at the outset of the post, it’s critical to understand when you’ve got a gem underneath your feet.  Here’s a very good recent example of what happens when you don’t:  131 Alberta Avenue was a an old, tired home 3 bedroom home.   If you had seen the house, then you’d know that it needed a new roof almost immediately, an entirely new hall bathroom, and a complete upgrade to the kitchen — pretty much the entire house needs to be touched.  Not to mention that it seemed to have a heavy smell of cigarette smoke throughout the home.   The bottom line is that it was arguably a good candidate for plowing it under and starting all over.

BUT..  it’s also sits on a prime 6,050 square foot lot located mid-block on a great street in White Oaks.

The $879,000 asking price was probably reasonable if one only considered the condition of the structure, and not the location and size of the lot.   So needless to say, this price was a head-scratcher to many agents who know this market well.    And what happened to this property just demonstrates the point I’m trying to convey in this post:   The value of the dirt often becomes the overriding element in assessing the value of  property, and it’s important to work with an agent who realizes when this is the case.

So what happened with this home?  The word on the street was that it got nearly 20 offers and sold for over $1.2M — that’s over $300,000 (or a whopping 35%) over the asking price…for what was arguably a tear-down.    Clearly, the value of the dirt was not factored into this one.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-15-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

The table was really set for it to be a “statement week” for the real estate market last week in San Carlos.  If you recall from the last report, we were slammed with a wave of new listings at the end of the prior week.  This pushed the inventory level in San Carlos above the 30 mark for the first time all year.   There were literally so many open houses to see, that it was a challenge to visit them all in the 3-hour time slot on a single day.  When was the last time that happened?

But the big question was, how would the market react to such an upside?  Would this finally signal a return to something resembling balance to the market?  Would it help give buyers a tiny bit more leverage?  Well, as you can see from the “Homes Pending Sale” section below, the market reacted just as it has all year — it devoured the inventory.   No sooner did we take a peek over the top of the 30 mark, then buyers drove it right back down to the 22 listings that we have today.  And yes, there were still multiple offers to go around the entire list.   So, while the sudden surge of inventory certainly gave buyers lots of much-needed options, it also demonstrated how strong the market remains in San Carlos.

There’s another interesting tidbit in this week’s report too.  For the first time in months, there’s actually more red ink in the “Homes Sold” section than there was green ink.  In other words, more homes sold for less than their list price than above.  Indeed, the homes that closed escrow fetched an average of 98% of their list price.   That’s the first time in months that it has been below 100%.    Is this the signal that the prices are starting to top out?   Perhaps, but it will take a few more weeks like this to convince me that it wasn’t just a coincidence.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-15-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-15-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
7 8
Average Sold Price
$1,483,429 $1,244,875
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$613 $736
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 98% 108%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 7
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 39 34
Inventory of Active Listings:
22 29
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,438,143 $1,362,240
Average DOM of Active Listings: 23 18
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $605 $610
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.56 : 1 0.85 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-8-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

By San Carlos standards, there was a virtual tidal wave of new single-family home listings this past week, much to the joy of buyers and their agents alike.  17 homes made their debut this week, in what was easily the biggest listing week so far in 2013. But true to San Carlos form, a couple of them did not even make it to the first open house weekend, which serves as a constant reminder to San Carlos home buyers that expediency and staying on task is still vitally important in this market.

It will be very interesting to see if this latest surge in listings will alleviate a little bit of the upward pressure on a market, or if they will be quickly absorbed by the huge imbalance of buyers that have been looking all year long.   If you are interested in keeping closer tabs than just this weekly summary, I also post the pending and sold homes every day on the White Oaks Blog Facebook page.   If you don’t already follow that page, you definitely should.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-8-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-8-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
8 6
Average Sold Price
$1,244,875 $1,311,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$736 $707
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 108% 114%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 7 9
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 34 34
Inventory of Active Listings:
29 17
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,362,240 $1,258,118
Average DOM of Active Listings: 18 19
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $610 $611
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.85 : 1 0.50 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The Hills are Alive…in San Carlos.

Music

The Sound of Money.

It’s funny how home buyer’s preferences seem to shift over time.  About a decade ago, home buyers flocked to the hills of San Carlos to take advantage of the newer, larger homes and the incredible bay views that are unique to the San Carlos hills.   But over the past few years, that focus has shifted back toward the flatlands as the chic downtown shopping district of San Carlos became a top destination point along the Peninsula.  Consequently, many San Carlos buyers have been eschewing the homes in the hills in favor of homes in the flats so that they live closer to the bustling downtown area of San Carlos.

But the amazing real estate boom of 2013 has cast a very favorable light on all of San Carlos, including the aforementioned “hills” area.   The Beverly Terrace and Alder Manor regions, which comprise the western portion of the City, have posted some very impressive sales in 2013, which suggests that buyers are embracing the hilly regions of San Carlos once again.

The Numbers.

There have been some absolutely eye-popping sales that have closed in the past few months in the hills of San Carlos.  The table below highlights just a few of the more notable sales, as well as how high above the list price the homes fetched.  Note that all of these sales occurred since the beginning of the year.   Just click on the address for more details about each home:

Address List Price Sold Price
Amount Over List
DOM
1090 Crestview Drive $1,549,000 $1,855,000 +$306,000 (+19.8%)
10
108 Dundee Lane $1,495,000 $1,757,000 +$262,000 (+17.5%)
11
147 Leslie Drive $1,385,000 $1,622,000 +$237,000 (+17.1%)
14
909 Heather Drive $1,065,000 $1,280,000 +$215,000 (+20.2%)
14
248 Crestview Drive $1,199,000 $1,410,000 +$211,000 (+17.6%)
10
57 Chilton Avenue $1,149,000 $1,340,000 +$191,000 (+16.6%)
21
1364 Crestview Drive $1,188,888 $1,350,000 +$161,112 (+13.6%)
11

Not to be left out of the game, the many condos and town-homes that dot the upper ridge of San Carlos have also posed similar breathtaking gains this year. It has become pretty common to see some of the larger units surpassing the $1M mark again.

So if you were thinking that you’d perhaps gain a competitive advantage in this market by looking in the hills where there might  be fewer buyers, I’m afraid that ship has already sailed.    But if you’re a homeowner in the hills that has been holding off on selling your home for more favorable market conditions, the tide probably couldn’t be better than what it is right now.

The Hills of San Carlos are very much alive again.
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 6-1-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Although it was a relatively small sample size at only 6 closed sales, it was still an eye-opener to see that the sales price for these 6 listings commanded a 14% premium on average over the asking price.  Four of the six fetched $200,000 or more over their asking price, or an upside of 17-20%.   Buying activity continues to be brisk, with 8 more homes going into contract over the past week.   And open houses reported crushing crowds over the weekend.

Even with a significant correction in the stock market at the end of the week, it doesn’t seem that anything can curb the enthusiasm and momentum of the real estate market in San Carlos right now.  It’s an amazing thing to see.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 6-1-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 6-1-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
6 12
Average Sold Price
$1,311,000 $1,300,875
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$707 $671
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 114% 107%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 9 12
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 34 32
Inventory of Active Listings:
17 19
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,258,118 $1,268,047
Average DOM of Active Listings: 19 28
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $611 $612
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.50 : 1 0.59 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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