The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4-13-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

There was nothing but green ink in the “Single Family Homes Sold in San Carlos” section of the report this week.  All 5 homes that closed escrow did so at prices that averaged 10% over the asking price.    This shouldn’t really be a surprise, since virtually every listing that has sold in the past few months has done so with multiple aggressive offers.  Of the 14 active listings that remain, at least 4 of them have offer dates for this week.  So unless we continue to get new listings to sell, the inventory is going to remain in the low-teens (or perhaps the single digits) for yet another week.  If you’re thinking of selling your home and catching the spring market, now is the time.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 4-13-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

Special Report: San Carlos Q1’2013 Real Estate Update.

A Seller’s Quarter.

If there was a three-month period in recent memory that was favorable for home sellers in San Carlos than the quarter that just completed, I certainly haven’t seen it.   There are three characteristics that best describe the surreal real estate market in San Carlos right now: Low inventory, high demand, and rapidly escalating prices.   If you don’t read another word in this post, that one sentence will tell you everything you need to know about the condition of our local real estate market.   And if you’re a buyer who is trying to land that evasive San Carlos home, don’t hold your breath thinking that conditions are going to change anytime soon.

In this report, we’ll dig a little into a few metrics that will simply affirm those aforementioned characteristics.

Prices at an All-Time High.

The custom chart I created below shows the average sales price of single family residences in San Carlos that sold over the past 5 complete years (2008-2012), and then compares it to the same metric for the first 3 months of 2013.

The average sales price of $1,237,228 for Q1’13 is not only a whopping 15% increase over 2012, but it’s very likely the highest average sales price on record for any quarter in San Carlos….ever.   It’s even higher than the crazy pre-market crash days of 2005-07, which topped out at about $1.22M in one quarter.

And the year is just getting started.

High Demand, Low Inventory.

A few weeks ago, I trotted out another custom chart that showed the number of new listings for the first two months of 2013, and compared it to the same period of time over the past 5 years.     At that time of that post, the numbers weren’t as bad as they seemed — while the number of new listings were certainly low, they were on par with a few previous years for the same period.  The perception that there were fewer listings was driven just as much by the fact that homes were selling far more quickly than they had in the past 5 years, thus keep the available inventory at paltry levels.

But March — normally a banner month for new listings — was an absolute disaster for new listings in 2013.   The chart below tracks the number of new listings AND the number of closed home sales for the first quarter of the past 5 years in San Carlos:

The 73 new homes that were listed on the MLS in the first quarter of 2013 was down 15% from 2012 — but since we’re on the topic of extremes, it also represents the lowest level for a Q1 in the past 10 years (which is as far back as I could trace the MLS data.)  So the perception that there are fewer listings this year in San Carlos is now a stone cold reality.

What made things even more difficult for sellers in this quarter is that the number of homes that sold did not suffer such a punishing drop.  The 48 homes that closed escrow in the first quarter — while a drop of 21% from 2012 — was still the second highest total over the past 5 years.

So in a nutshell, there were fewer homes to choose from, but still a healthy number of homes sold.  This is a lethal combination that keeps inventory at record lows.

Other Factors.

There are a few other important factors that are tilting the market ridiculously in the favor of home sellers right now.    The job market on the Peninsula is simply booming, with the high-tech and biotech industries awaking from a 3-year siesta and hiring workers at record rates.  These new employees are all looking for a roof over their head.

Despite the white-hot economy that we’re experiencing in the immediate Bay Area, the rest of the country is growing at a much slower rate.   Consequently, the Federal Reserve has opted to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels,  thus giving buyers unprecedented buying power.

And speaking of buying power, there’s simply a ton of cash floating around in the local market.  The stock market continues to hit new highs every week, and companies are finally comfortable discussing IPO plans again.   So not only are prices escalating, but the ratio of down payment/loan is growing from the normal 20% to well over 50% in many offers.

What’s Ahead?

Unfortunately for buyers, much of the same lies ahead for the foreseeable future.  Unless something changes in the factors discussed above (hot job market, low interest rates, low inventory) there will continue to be a significant imbalance in the market in favor of sellers.  That means buyers will need to dig deeper then they’re probably prepared to dig to land that elusive San Carlos home.  And for those of you watching the market, brace yourself for even more shocking pricing milestones that will certainly be shattered in the coming months.

For sellers, this is without a doubt the best selling environment that we’ve seen in the past decade.  If you even have an inkling that you’re going to be selling in the next couple of years, you should seriously look at accelerating that timeframe and cashing in.  The difference could be significant.

For a complete list of the 48 homes that sold in San Carlos in the first quarter of 2013, click here:  Q1-2013 San Carlos Home Sales
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4-6-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Saved by the bell.  Just when it looked like we would plunge below our lowest level of the year — 7 listings — we got a little surge late in the week to push us back into double digits.  Sure, it’s only 12, but it’s sure a whole lot better than 6.    That’s about half the inventory that’s currently available in Belmont, to give you some idea of what’s going on in the local market.

Stay tuned to the site this week for the Q1’2013 update, where we’ll take a look at the numbers for the first quarter.  There are some very revealing trends that we’ll discuss.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 4-6-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

Downsizing in San Carlos

Going the Other Direction.

A few weeks ago, we talked about the challenges facing the “move-up” buyers in San Carlos — those people who already own a home in San Carlos but want to move up to something bigger and still stay in town.  In a market that so strongly favors sellers right now,  finding (and being able to purchase) their replacement home is the biggest challenge this group faces, because selling their current home in this market would be no problem whatsoever.

What’s interesting is that there is a smaller but still very important group of potential home sellers in San Carlos that’s trying to do the exact opposite of the move-up buyer.  These are the homeowners who suddenly find themselves in a much larger home than they need, or can afford, to live in — yet they still want to call San Carlos home.  Most often they are the empty-nesters who no longer need that 4 or 5 bedroom home since they kids have all flown the coop.    They comprise a smaller group called the “down-sizers“, and they are no less important in this market than the move-up buyers.

Similar Challenges.

Much like the move-up buyer, the typical downsizer will have no problem selling their current home.  The big challenge is finding a suitable smaller home in San Carlos.  And with a whopping 11 homes for sale in the entire City right now, there’s simply not a lot of options for either group.    Nobody wants to run the risk of having to live in transitional housing after their home sells.  Moving is already a huge pain in the rear, so doing it twice is not high on most people’s list.

The sellers in both groups who have enough equity in their home, or who are in a strong enough financial position to not have to sell their current home before they buy the replacement home, are at a distinct advantage over those who don’t.  But in either case, nobody is willing to put their home on the market until they’ve identified where they’re going next.  It’s a significant contributing factor why the inventory of homes for sale is so low in San Carlos right now.

A Hidden Inventory.

When you start to take stock of the number of homes on both sides of this fence, it’s a pretty significant number.   I have no fewer than four different move-up buyers in various locations in San Carlos with different degrees of home sizes and bedroom counts, and I know that many other agents have the same situation.   On the flip side, there’s likely a smaller number of downsizers who would be a perfect fit for one of these beautiful homes.

But since neither side is willing to put their homes on the market,  it has created a pool of “hidden” inventory that could be made available if only there was a way solve both problems at the same time — almost like connecting the dots between these specific buyers and sellers.

Are you one of those downsizers who can’t seem to find the right place in San Carlos to call your next home?  If so, contact me — there may be a creative and mutually beneficial solution right under our collective noses.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 3-30-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

I overheard a conversation this week between two agents that the market might actually be slowing down in San Carlos (no, this is not an April Fool’s joke).   I’m not quite sure where that perception came from — maybe it’s the fact that some of the recent sales were “only” getting 4-6 offers, instead of the lofty double-digit offer counts of some previous sales.  But if you want an indication of the temperature of this market this past week, just look at the Pending Sales section below.   Eight homes went pending last week — seven of those eight were gone in under two weeks.  One never had an open house.

It’s not slowing down, folks.  You heard it here first.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 3-30-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

Warning: (Another) Rental Scam Hits San Carlos.

On Trulia This Time.

If things weren’t already bad enough in the San Carlos rental market –  with even more people competing for fewer rental homes, and rapidly escalating rental prices — now renters have to contend once again with slime-bag scammers who are trying to prey on the desperation that permeates the local rental market.  I wrote about this topic a couple of years ago, when it was happening with regular frequency on Craigslist.

Well, it’s back again.  This time, however, the scammers are using the rental section on the popular website Trulia to swindle unsuspecting renters out of a few thousand bucks.  So it’s very important to be aware of what’s going on out there.

Same Scam, More Sophisticated.

Just like the Craiglist scam that has been running for a few years, this current illicit activity comes in the form of a seemingly legitimate rental posting in the rental section of Trulia’s website.     These posts advertise homes for rent in San Carlos, complete with an accurate description of the home,  nice photos, and usually a very attractive rental price.    The problem is that the homes they’re advertising for rent are not really for rent — they’re homes that have been recently listed for sale on the MLS.  They simply steal the photos and the property description from the MLS (or any of third-party real estate sites that subscribe to the MLS feed) and create a completely false rental posting.

The hook here is the abnormally low rental prices that they are asking for these — usually about 50% off the going rate.  The scammers claim to be the homeowners who are out of town for an extended period of time and are looking to rent the home while they’re gone.   Because they’re out of town, they want to handle every aspect of the rental remotely, including sending the deposit check and any advance rental money to somewhere else in the country before they’ll give you the keys to the place.

Well, you can see how this ends.   The eager renters send their money in, the keys never show up, and when they drive to the property to investigate, they’re met by a befuddled homeowner who informs them that the house is not, and never will be for rent.

What makes this version of the scam even more dangerous is the level of sophistication.   Because access to public records is so easy on the internet nowadays, thieves are actually looking to see who the current owner is and then creating a fictitious email address with that name (which is really creepy).   So when renters start to check on the legitimacy of the post, the basic stuff seems to check out.  The more info that can be obtained online, the more they can make the posting look legit.

If It Looks To Good to be True…

Unfortunately, the only safeguard you have in these situations is your own common sense.  It’s very hard to track down these types of criminals, simply because it’s relatively easy to hide within the massive maze of the internet.  But there are a few telltale signs that a rental posting may be a scam — here are a few of the obvious ones:

• Below Market Rent.  In one of the recent cases, they had listed an 1,800 square foot home for rent in a great San Carlos neighborhood for $1,700/mo.   If you’ve been even remotely connected to the rental market, you know that’s less than half of what that home would fetch in this market.
• Missing Owners.  In the recent Trulia cases, the supposed owners claimed to be in Atlanta visiting their 18-year old daughter for an extended period of time.  They were not able to show the property to anyone.   It’s usually some sob stot
• Rent Sight Unseen.    When they ask you to mail in a check to get the keys, and you haven’t been able to see the place yet, this should be a major red flag.

The bottom line is that if normal rules of engagement for a rental aren’t being followed, you should definitely proceed with caution.

**As a footnote — Trulia did ultimately take steps to remove the posts and block this particular user, once the scam was brought to their attention.  But it took about 5 days after they were notified, and during that time about a dozen potential renters stopped by these two homes trying to look around the property and gain access.  Not a good thing.

It’s also worth noting that these types of scams can happen anywhere — Craiglist and Trulia were the two most noteworthy recent cases because they are so widely read.   Generally, the vast majority of rental listings on these two sites are totally legitimate, and this post should not be construed to imply that they’re not.

It’s simply a heads-up to be able to recognize those few postings that are not legit.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 3-23-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Nothing seemed to slow the runaway freight train that is the San Carlos real estate market this past week.   9 homes went into contract during the week, with some at some eye-popping prices.  You’ll be amazed to see the prices on both 199 Sycamore Street an 124 Chestnut Street when their final prices are posted.   But that will only remain a shocker until the next barrier is destroyed — In fact, the theme for San Carlos market should be “Last Week’s Insane is This Week’s Mundane.”   It was only a few weeks ago when we marveled at 148 Chestnut shattering the $1.3M mark for a 3BR home — now it’s looking like a bargain this week.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 3-23-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________

Lower Aim, Higher Hopes.

Inverted Mindset for Buyers.

There’s an interesting shift taking place today in the minds of realistic home buyers who are shopping in this heated real estate market.    Back when the market was much more balanced (um, 199….?),  if a buyer said that the absolute cap on their budget was $1,000,000, it made sense to set their search criteria a little bit higher, and for them to look at houses up to $1,050,000 — or about 5% above their budget cap.  Why?

Two reasons — first, back when homes weren’t flying off the market at a double-digit increases over list price, you could actually negotiate the price of the home with the seller.  Go figure!   So that $1,050,000 house could quite possibly be had for $1M, especially if it had been on the market for a few weeks.     The second reason is that rarely is there ever an “absolute” cap to a buyer’s budget. More often than not, if a buyer finds a home that they absolutely love but is about 5% (or less) above their stated cap, they almost always miraculously find a way to come up with the extra scratch to make it happen.  And they’re thrilled to do so, because they got the house they really wanted.

Not so in today’s market.

Aim Low.

Anyone watching today’s market closely knows that just about everything is fetching at least 5% over asking price, sometimes much more.  Taking last week in San Carlos as an example, of the 9 single-family homes that closed escrow, a full 2/3 of them sold in a range of 6%-23% over the list price.   And these  were for contracts that were locked up 30 days ago.  As the market gets hotter, those numbers are continuing to rise with the temperature.

This phenomenon is forcing buyers to lower the aim of the house they’re looking for.  Instead of looking 5% above their budget cap, they’re now looking 5% (or more) below their cap.  In other words, those very same $1,000,000 buyers are discounting the chances of getting anything listed over $950,000 because the probability is very high that it will get bid well beyond their limit.

It’s a delicate balancing act.  On one hand, you don’t want to risk not bidding on a house only to find that it didn’t get bid into the stratosphere like you thought it would.    On the other hand,  it’s emotionally draining to keep writing offers on homes that you have no chance in getting.   That’s a big reason why you see some buyers sitting out this market now.    They’re just wiped out.   But it doesn’t need to be that way.

Know Thy Market.

It’s a theme that I constantly preach on this site.  Knowing the local market (and working with an agent who knows the local market) can help you make informed decisions on when to strike, and when to save your bullets for a different battle.    I’ll be the first to admit that pricing a home for sale is an inexact science.  It involves just as much looking at historical datapoints  as it does gazing into a crystal ball.   Despite the best efforts,  it just doesn’t always come out right.  And when you mix in those intentionally under-priced listings, it makes it really difficult for a buyer to differentiate a real buying opportunity from just a pipe dream.

Intimate market knowledge is like the sense of smell for a bloodhound.  It enables you to intelligently sniff your way through what is a very tricky and treacherous market for buyers right now.   And the more you know about the market, the better you can predict where the chips are going to fall.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
_____________________________________________________________________________