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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-8-14.

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It’s decision time for those homeowners that are still on the fence about whether to put their home on the market this year, or to wait until the spring market of 2015. With only about 2.5 weeks until the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, there’s still theoretically time to list a home and get it into contract before we slip into December. The recent unseasonably warm weather certainly doesn’t make it seem as if we’re already in the second week of November. And when you combine that with sales results like those posted below, and the fact that there are only 10 single-family homes for sale in the entire city, it makes that decision even more challenging.

The good news for home sellers is that the market is still incredibly strong, and buyers will continue to be in the hunt throughout the holiday season.  That means if the home is prepared well and priced correctly, it will definitely sell – regardless of whether it’s the second week of November, or the week before Christmas.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-8-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-8-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 3 5
Average Sold Price: $1,833,333 $1,460,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $776 $780
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 117% 104%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 29
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 23 21
No. of Active Listings: 10 14
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,632,066 $1,529,190
Average DOM of Active Listings: 57 40
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $760 $735
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.48 : 1 0.67: 1

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Behind the Numbers: $2,000,000 Home Sales in San Carlos.

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A Growing Pool.

A few months back, I wrote a post about the growing number of home sales in San Carlos that were breaking the $2,000,000 mark. What was once a rare and newsworthy milestone only a few short years ago is now becoming almost the norm for newer, larger homes in the more desirable neighborhoods of San Carlos. This stands to reason, as the booming Bay Area economy of 2014 has given home buyers unprecedented buying power, which in turn has driven home prices all along the Peninsula to stratospheric heights.

In this post, we’ll take another look at the number of $2,000,000+ home sales that have closed so far this year, but this time we’ll dive down a little deeper into the numbers to get a better understanding of how this new and growing segment of the market in San Carlos operates. Some of the trends that emerge from the numbers below are to be expected, while some of the numbers may surprise you.

The Numbers.

When I first touched on the topic earlier this year, the number of homes that had already sold for $2,000,000 or more in San Carlos, along with those that were pending, had already nearly equaled the total for all of 2013. And that was only in April. It was easy to see back then that we were on track to eclipse last year’s mark of 13 homes well before this year finished up.

Not only did we pass last year’s mark, but 2014 will finish at nearly double the number of high-end sales. That is probably not too surprising, given the circus what was our real estate market this year.

Home Sales in San Carlos - $2M and Above

Home Sales in San Carlos – $2M and Above

 

Click here for a complete list of the homes that sold for over $2M in San Carlos:  $2M Home Summary – San Carlos

Digging deeper into the numbers, a clear dividing line appears in the market performance of this elite group of homes, and that inflection point is linked to the original list price of the home — more specifically, whether it was listed above $2M, or below $2M. The difference in the two segments is pretty remarkable. The table below looks at some key metrics for the entire group, and then breaks it down into these two key segments:

Key Housing Metrics
All $2M+ Homes List Price Below $2M List Price Above $2M
# of Closed Sales: 24 14 10
Average Sold Price: $2,279,958 $2,176,071 $2,425,400
Average $/Sq Foot: $782 $818 $733
Average Percentage of List Price: 109% 115% 99%
Average Days to Sell:
28 14 48
Average Structure Size (sq ft): 3,015 2,699 3,456
Average Lot Size (sq ft): 10,393 8,700 12,764

There are a few interesting nuggets that can be pulled from this data, some of which I highlighted in red above:

  • Of the 24 homes in this group, only 10 of them (or 42%) had original list prices of $2,000,000 or higher, while the other 14 homes (or 58%) actually started below the $2,000,000 mark and were bid up into this range.
  • The homes that originally listed below $2M fetched a whopping premium of 15% on average above the asking price, while the homes that listed above $2M “only” got 99% of the asking price.   In fact, when you look at the individual home sales, there’s a very clear pattern that shows that the higher the list price, the bigger the discount required to sell it.  The largest percentage of the asking price paid for the group was 134% — the lowest percent was 87%.
  • Do schools matter?   Of the 24 homes that sold for over $2M, the ones that were located within the San Carlos School District boundary fetched 101% of their asking price.   The homes within the Redwood City School landed only 94%.
  • There was a huge disparity in the amount of time it took to sell homes in the two groups.   For homes in the less expensive groups, they were only on the market for an average of 2 weeks.   For the latter group, it took 1.5 months to get into contract.
  • The average price-per-square foot dropped significantly in the more expensive segment — but that is to be expected since the average house size was 28% larger in this group, and price-per-square foot is not a linear relationship with the size of the house, as you already know.

The Bottom Line.

What does this data tell us? First of all, the legitimacy, accuracy, and relevance of any conclusions that one can draw solely from this data must be appropriately tempered by the sample size that’s being observed. While the number of $2M home sales has jumped 69% from the previous year, this elite segment of the San Carlos market still only represents 8.8% of the total number of homes sold so far this year in San Carlos. In other words, 24 datapoints does not a trend make…

But taking this data in combination with the knowledge of the psyche of the typical San Carlos home buyer, there are certain conclusions that can safely be made:

  1. San Carlos home buyers have no problem chasing a home price upward into the $2M range. But there still seems to be some market reluctance for homes that start above $2M. This result makes sense because the higher the price, the fewer qualified buyers there will be. But also when asking prices push in excess of $2M, these homes are now competing in the range of other communities such as Burlingame, Menlo Park, Baywood/Aragon in San Mateo, and parts of Los Altos — regions that you would not normally assimilate with the San Carlos real estate market. In other words, there are simply more options outside of San Carlos that are competing for buyers in this price range.
  2. Seasoned home buyers in the San Carlos market almost have a pre-programmed understanding that they’re going to pay 10-15% on average above the asking price to be competitive in this market. The weekly data that’s published on the blog certainly backs that up. But that mindset seems to change drastically for homes that are listed above $2M. I can tell you with complete certainty that this is not the case in those aforementioned communities where the $2M-$3M price range is just as hotly contested as the $1.5M- $2M range in San Carlos. San Carlos will get there eventually, but there’s simply not a comfort factor in spending that kind of money here just yet.
  3. As the Bay Area economy continues to strengthen, and more technology companies look to expand northward from their traditional Silicon Valley haunts, look for more larger, spectacular homes to be built in San Carlos that should easily fetch a price tag of over $2M.

At that point, we’ll be having this same discussion — except it will be about $3M homes in San Carlos…
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-1-14.

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Goodbye, October — hello, November!  We are entering the final third of the fall real estate market and pace has already slowed somewhat in San Carlos, as only two new listings made their debut on the MLS last week, and  just 4 of the homes in the existing inventory went into contract. Both of those metrics are down significantly from the pace that has been set so far, during what has been a very robust fall real estate market.

The net result of this week’s activity was to bring the inventory down to just 14 homes for sale in the entire city. This is relatively good news for those sellers who are still hoping to get their homes in contract before we hit the Thanksgiving holiday week — which, by the way, is in just 3 weeks. Conversely, this has to be discouraging to home buyers who are hoping to get a home in contract soon, and be moved in for the holidays.

On top of all that, the time change this past weekend will make it more challenging to show homes this time of year since it will now be dark in the early evenings. That means if you want to see a home while there is still some daylight, you’ll either have to sneak out during work hours, or wait until the weekend to get your first peek.

Here are the details from last week:

By the Numbers.

Below is a high-level view of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-1-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-1-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 8
Average Sold Price: $1,460,000 $1,505,486
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $780 $881
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 104% 106%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 29 8
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 21 21
No. of Active Listings: 14 17
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,529,190 $1,529,575
Average DOM of Active Listings: 40 35
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $735 $706
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.67 : 1 0.81: 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-25-14.

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This past week in San Carlos the market tallied another round of stellar sales results, and that was right on the heels of an equally strong week before.   The data from the 8 homes that closed escrow is pretty amazing:  $881/ square foot, 106% of the list price, and only 8 days on average to sell.   Those are almost Spring-like numbers, but it confirms what I have conveyed all along in the pages of this site — the early part of the Fall market, from Labor Day to about mid-October, is a very robust “secondary” market and nearly rivals the traditional Spring buying season.

Despite all of the expectation that interest rates would start to climb, world events and a rocky ride on the stock market over the past two weeks have kept rates bouncing along at rock-bottom levels.  The conditions are still very good for buyers in this abbreviated market.  The only thing holding back this market, as has been the case all year, is a lack of good inventory.  This means that sellers should still be able to secure very good pricing all the way up through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-25-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 10-25-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 8 6
Average Sold Price: $1,505,486 $1,481,667
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $881 $825
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 106% 113%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 8 10
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 21 23
No. of Active Listings: 17 16
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,529,575 $1,526,361
Average DOM of Active Listings: 35 37
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $706 $605
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.81 : 1 0.7: 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-18-14.

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Well, just when you thought prices were starting to settle down a bit in San Carlos!! The 6 homes that closed escrow this past week (see below) were all early-fall issues — in other words, they all made their debut on the market sometime between Labor Day weekend and mid-September.  None of them were carry-overs from the summer months.

These six home sales pretty well capture the essence of what was happening in the San Carlos real estate market during the first few weeks of September.  Open houses were well attended as buyers returned en masse from the summer break.  And most, if not all, of the homes that closed this week received multiple offers, although not necessarily in the eye-popping quantities that we saw during the crazy Spring months.

But the lack in quantity was more than made up for in the quality of the offers, as is evidenced by the whopping 13% average kicker over the list price that these homes fetched.  The two listings I had on Greenwood and Saint Francis got 3 offers each, which might be considered a low turnout compared to the Spring market.  But all 6 offers were extremely strong and were well over the asking price, which speaks volumes about the strength and determination of the buyers that are still in the hunt this fall.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-18-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 10-18-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 6 5
Average Sold Price: $1,481,667 $1,387,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $825 $728
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 113% 104%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 10 12
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 23 26
No. of Active Listings: 16 12
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,526,361 $1,525,407
Average DOM of Active Listings: 37 43
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $605 $657
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.7 : 1 0.46: 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-11-14.

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We are effectively at the mid-point of the Fall real estate market in San Carlos, square in between the Labor Day and Thanksgiving weekends. The market has taken on a bit more of a relaxed vibe than the craziness and intensity that we witnessed during the Spring market. As we discussed last week, certain homes that don’t necessarily have all of the boxes checked for today’s buyers are taking a bit of a haircut to get into contract. Homes that have the “right stuff” are still selling quickly, and in a competitive environment. But the number of offers on each deal seems to be more reasonable than what we witnessed earlier this year. That trend certainly continued last week.

This should be good news for home buyers who have weathered the storm of 2014, but may still be reluctant to step back into the fray. The second half of the Fall market should present some great opportunities to pick up a home before the market kicks into hibernation mode for the winter. The big challenge over the coming weeks, however, will be re-building the inventory to give buyers something to choose from. As of this morning, there are only 11 single-family homes for sale in the entire city, and that number will likely drop further as the week progresses.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-11-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 10-11-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 9
Average Sold Price: $1,387,00 $1,537,667
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $728 $810
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 104% 99%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 12 32
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 26 26
No. of Active Listings: 12 15
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,525,407 $1,364,393
Average DOM of Active Listings: 43 34
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $657 $734
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.46 : 1 0.58: 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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What To See This Weekend in San Carlos – 10/10/2014.

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There will be a lot of local events competing for the attention of San Carlos home buyers this weekend — The San Carlos Art and Wine Faire is back this weekend for its 24th annual appearance. For you speed junkies, the Blue Angels take to the Bay Area skies again after a short hiatus in the ever-popular Fleet Week festivities up in San Francisco. And of course, there’s the normal array of soccer games, shopping trips, etc..

For those home buyers who choose to stay and task and check out the local inventory, there are a few solid choices to check out in San Carlos. Ironically, all 3 of this week’s choices are 4-bedroom homes — something that’s usually an anomaly in a city that is dominated by 3-bedroom homes.  And it’s even more unusual considering how low the inventory has dropped yet again. As of this morning, the total number of single-family homes for sale in San Carlos dropped to 13 homes, and that number will likely drop before the weekend unless some new inventory comes online today.  The townhouse/condo market is in no better shape, with only 4 units to choose from this weekend.

Both of these numbers are surprisingly low, since we are essentially at the midpoint of the Fall real estate market and one would expect a peak in new listings.

Here are a few great homes to see this weekend. Be sure to click on the address for more details and photos:

1028 Rosewood Avenue, San Carlos

1028 Rosewood Avenue – $1,950,000

From everything that I’ve heard from hosting my own open houses over the past month, the flats of San Carlos is where everyone seems to want to be right now — the closer to downtown, the better.  If that is indeed what you are looking for, then be sure to drop by my listing at 1028 Rosewood Avenue this Sunday. Not only is it pretty rare that a house comes up for sale on this stretch of Rosewood, but you also don’t see homes this nicely finished on the market either. The sellers did a super job of preserving the circa-1926 heritage of the original home while blending modern amenities and a bunch of extra living space.

This home is much bigger that it appears when you first drive up.  But with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths inside of 2,720 square feet of living space, this home can easily handle a large family or host a big dinner party.  Gorgeous updated kitchen with huge granite slab, fully renovated bathrooms, and a massive master bedroom suite with soaring vaulted ceilings — this home has it all. Click here for the virtual tour.  And let’s not forget that it’s literally a couple of blocks away from the extremely popular north stretch of Laurel Street.

1028 Rosewood Avenue will be open on Saturday and Sunday from 1-4 for its second and final open house weekend–make sure you see it before it’s gone!

55 Sequoia Court – $1,699,999

55 Sequoia Court, San Carlos

55 Sequoia Court, San Carlos

Another 4-bedroom option to see this weekend is 55  55 Sequoia Court. This home is situated in the northern section of San Carlos just off Club Drive.  For families with school aged children, you’ll find that this is an ideal location since all three of the primary schools — Arundel Elementary, Tierra Linda Middle, and Carlmont High Schools — are just blocks away from home.

At 2,610 square feet this is a generously sized home, with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms on a 5,096 square foot lot.  It has lots of updates throughout, and provides you with another option for that seemingly elusive four bedroom home in San Carlos.

55 Sequoia Court is listed at $1,699,999 by Chris Frangos of Keller Williams, and will be on open on Sunday from 1:00-4:00PM.

 

 

Click here for a list of all of the other homes and condos that will be open this weekend.   Happy house hunting!
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-4-14.

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There is an interesting trend that has been developing in the Fall real estate market that I have sensed for the past few weeks, and that the numbers below are now starting to verify. First, if you look at the average percentage over the asking price that ALL homes are fetching in San Carlos, it has dropped significantly over the past few weeks. This past week, it was 99% and the previous week was about 100%. For most of the year, those numbers have been running at least 108% pretty consistently, and have been as high as 115%. At first blush, one could logically conclude from this statistic that the real estate market is slowing down in San Carlos, or at least leveling off.

However, if you look more closely at the individual sales prices below you will see two very different scenarios playing out in this market, and it highlights a critical difference between what we experienced in the white-hot spring market of 2014, and what we are now seeing in the fall.   On one hand, several homes that closed escrow this past week fetched hefty premiums over the asking price — exactly what we’ve seen all year. But this week, more than half of the homes that sold needed a significant price reduction to do so. That is likely the first time this year that this has happened and it underscores the fact the market is starting to push back a little on homes that are priced too optimistically for either their location, size, or condition. That certainly wasn’t the case in the spring, when whatever price was planted on the front lawn was virtually guaranteed to get a 10-15% kicker.

What this tells me is that the market is starting regain a little of its sanity. Multiple offers are still being seen for homes that have the “right stuff” (good location, condition, and price), although the number of offers seems to be less that what we saw in the Spring.   The big difference now is that the market is pushing back on those “fringe” homes that may not hit that sweet spot that buyers are looking for. In other words, there are still strong and very qualified buyers out there — they ‘re just being a bit more picky in this market.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-4-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 10-4-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 9 6
Average Sold Price: $1,537,667 $1,573,333
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $810 $781
Average Sold – Percentage Of List Price: 99% 100%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 32 21
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 26 29
No. of Active Listings: 15 15
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,364,393 $1,385,123
Average DOM of Active Listings: 34 16
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $734 $706
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.58 : 1 0.50: 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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