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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 2-2-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

There are many who believe that the spring real estate market doesn’t truly get underway until the Super Bowl is done.    If that’s the case, then bring on the market  (much to the chagrin of the 49ers).    In reality, the market isn’t waiting for anyone.   There were four nice listings to make their debut last week (see below) and there will be a couple of really good ones to appear this week – stay tuned to the blog for more details.    But with activity being brisk as expected, and 5 homes going into contract,  the active inventory still sits at a paltry 14 listings for sale.   Buyers are going to have to wait another week to see if we’ll get enough new listings to help ease the intense buying competition in San Carlos.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 2-2-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 2-2-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
1 3
Average Sold Price
$1,622,000 $1,087,677 (+49%)
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$605 $513
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 90% 106%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 183 26
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 12 12
Inventory of Active Listings:
14 14 (+0%)
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,406,349 $1,479,278
Average DOM of Active Listings: 46 95
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $574 $581
Active-Pending Ratio:
1.2 : 1 1.2 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Eight Days a Week.

8

The Magic Number.

When I am compiling the data for the San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review post that I publish every week, there’s a number that always seems to jump out at me from the Days on Market (DOM) column:  8.    By definition, the DOM figure is the number of days from when the property was listed on the MLS until an offer is accepted and the status changes to pending.     And in this high-demand, inventory depleted market that we’re experiencing now, 8 days seems to be the magic number that it takes a well prepared and intelligently priced home in San Carlos to sell in this market.  Can it be shorter?  Of course – there have been quite a few homes that have sold before they even hit the market, or within a few days after being listed.    And there’s always the ones that missed the mark on price or location and will sit on the market longer.

But when you look at mechanics of a typical listing in San Carlos, the number 8 is not a coincidence.

Exposure versus Expeditiousness.

It’s an absolute no-brainer that it’s in the best interest for sellers to get their home to maximize the exposure of their home by selling it on the MLS.    Yes, there are certain circumstances where an off-market sale may make sense, but if your goal is to get the best price possible for your home, you absolutely want multiple buyers competing for it.   But there’s a fine balance between garnering enough exposure on the market without holding interested buyers at bay too long to possibly squelch their enthusiasm for your property, or to have a competing listing hit the market and take the wind out of your sails.

When you examine the mechanics of a typical home listing, there are two critical events that maximize the accessibility and the exposure of your home:  the Tuesday broker’s tour, and the weekend open house.   What’s very apparent in this market is that you really only need to conduct one of each to garner enough interest to generate multiple offers on your home…and that’s where the number 8 comes in.

Here’s a very typical timeline of a home listing in San Carlos:

  • Friday:  Home debuts on the MLS.
  • Sunday:  Open House.
  • Tuesday:  Broker Tour.

By the following Friday (7th day) interested buyers have had enough time to see the home and review disclosures, and there’s usually more than enough interest now that it makes sense to listen to offers.   Allow one day for counter offers and ratification, and there are your 8 days.    This example holds true regardless of what day of the week the home is listed on.

Obviously, the point here is not that it’s going to be exactly 8 days to sell the house.  The key takeaway is that most hot listings will only have one open house and one broker tour before they’re gone, and as a buyer you need to plan accordingly.

What This Means for Buyers.

This compressed time-frame means that buyers have to be on top of their game, and that the purchase of a new home must take top priority.  Every hour and every day counts in a fast market like this.    If you’re out of town for the first (and only) open house, or if you can’t get out to see the listing for a few days, you’re already way behind the curve.   Your competition has already been through the house a couple of times and is now (hopefully) reading through the disclosures and planning their offer strategy.

There’s no gray area for buyers — you’re either in the market, or you’re not.    Those that are going to be successful finding a home in this challenging market recognize this and already have their strategy locked and loaded.

Those that don’t will continue to be stunned by the news that a home sold in “only” 8 days.
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Circling…

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A Buyer’s Quandary.

There’s an interesting phenomenon that seems to be happening with the San Carlos real estate market as we finish the first month of 2012.   On one hand,  agents are reporting eye-popping attendance figures at their San Carlos open houses since the year kicked off.  I’ve heard figures ranging from 250 to as high as 400 people coming through some open houses over the course of a weekend.  That’s a huge number of people!   And this doesn’t even count the immense pile of Realtor cards that accumulate during the week as agents preview the homes for their clients.      A few weeks ago when the home at 868 Cordilleras Avenue was on the market, you couldn’t even find a parking spot along that entire block of Cordilleras, Belle, or Elizabeth because there were so many people going through the open house.  It was an absolute zoo.  Sidewalk lemonade was almost as expensive as a beer at a 49er game.   You get the point…

So with all of the interest and buzz about these new listings, one would expect that they should be getting a boatload of offers, right?   Well, with the exception of the aforementioned listing that was rumored to have gotten over 20 offers, that really hasn’t been happening.   From the informal data that I’ve gathered in talking with other agents, most homes that are lucky enough to get multiple offers are only getting 3-4.

Now, that’s not to say that getting 3-4 offers on a listing should be considered a failure — far from it.  But with the sheer number of interested buyers flooding these open houses, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see twice as many offers on some of these entry level homes.  So why not more?

What’s Around The Corner?

I have a theory about why this is happening.  I certainly don’t think the quality of listings has become suddenly unattractive, so I tend to discount that as a reason that more buyers aren’t pulling the trigger.  What I think is happening is that buyers are circling, almost trying to buy some time to see what may be coming on the market in the next days/weeks.  After all, we’re still in January and the spring market hasn’t even kicked into gear yet.

This creates a quandary for home buyers — Buy now, and risk seeing a better home for less money in April.   Or, keep circling and miss out on a perfectly good home now.   It’s a difficult decision, because nobody really knows for sure what the spring market is going to bring.   Will we have another year of sparse inventory?   Or will there be an influx of new listings to choose from when we hit Spring?

The consensus among Realtors pushes the needle a little towards the latter, which may be why some buyers are deciding to wait and see what’s around the corner before they commit to writing an offer now.

Thoughts, comments?
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 1-26-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

The activity is definitely starting to pick up in San Carlos as we head into the early-spring market.  There were 4 new listings that made their debut last week, and 5 homes were snatched up by eager buyers — 4 of the 5 had been on the market for less than two weeks, so buyers are definitely on task and moving decisively.

It’s interesting that of the 14 or so homes that are available for sale in San Carlos, not one of them is the bread-and-butter 3BR/2BA configuration that so many buyers are looking for.   But that will start to change over the next couple of weeks as there are a handful of really nice 3/2′s that will be hitting the market.     Stay tuned!

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 1-26-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 1-26-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
3 6
Average Sold Price
$1,087,677 $1,243,321 (-12.5%)
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$513 $516
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 106% 92%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 26 50
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 12 8
Inventory of Active Listings:
14 18 (+13%)
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,479,278 $1,471,944
Average DOM of Active Listings: 95 81
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $581 $587
Active-Pending Ratio:
1.2 : 1 2.3 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 1-19-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

The inventory of homes for sale in San Carlos inched upward slightly this past week with a handful of listings hitting the market.    The active-to-pending ratio rose above 1 for the first time in many months, as a bunch of the pending sales cleared from the books.  The current ratio of 2 is much healthier for the market than where it has been in the past, but with inventory still sitting below 20 there’s a dire need for more inventory for buyers to choose from.

The good news is that more will be coming online in the upcoming weeks.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 1-19-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 1-19-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
 6 0
Average Sold Price
$1,243,321 $0 (+%)
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$516 $0
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 92% 0%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 50 0
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 8 13
Inventory of Active Listings:
18 16 (+13%)
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,471,944 $1,535,684
Average DOM of Active Listings: 81 86
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $587 $563
Active-Pending Ratio:
2.3 : 1 0.81 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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A Good Loan is More Than Just a Low Interest Rate.

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Rock-Bottom Rates Abound.

One of the benefits of our misfiring national economy is that home buyers are able to take advantage of unprecedented low interest rates on home loans.  It seems as if there is an endless supply of lenders coming out of the woodwork looking to get a piece of the booming real estate market in the Bay Area, and they’re aggressively making their pitch to buyers on the radio, TV, and the Internet.

So with all of these choices at your disposal, which institution is right for you?

The answer to that question will be very different depending on whether you are purchasing a new home or re-financing your existing home.  For this discussion, I will focus on the purchase side.

Service is Paramount for Purchase Loans.

If you’re in the market to purchase a home and your Realtor is suggesting that you to use his or her preferred lending institution, you should probably take heed to their suggestion.   They’re not doing this because they will get some sort of “financial incentive” by referring their favorite institution (that’s illegal, by the way).  A good Realtor should be suggesting a lending institution that can a) best execute the loan process in the defined time-frame, and b) provides attractive rates and terms.

Did you notice that “interest rate” was not the first criteria?  That’s because service and execution are absolutely critical when you’re purchasing a home in this hyper-competitive real estate market.    I can probably count on one hand the number of institutions that truly understand the Peninsula real estate market, and that have invested in the infrastructure required to service this market.

Here’s why service and execution are so important…

Don’t Forget:  It’s a Contract.

When you write an offer to purchase a home, you’re entering into a binding contract with conditions and associated deadlines that must be met by you to complete the purchase.    These conditions will of course vary depending on the buyer and the home they are purchasing.  But unless you are paying all cash for your home (lucky you if you are), you will be signing up to conditions pertaining to the funding of your purchase — and that means making and keeping commitments on behalf of your lender.   (This is the primary reason why purchase loans differs so much from re-finance loans.)

And if you’re entrusting your loan to a bank that doesn’t understand the local market, or doesn’t have a good track record on hitting their dates, you are unwittingly putting your offer or your home purchase at risk.

There’s nothing terribly difficult to understand here — in any contract, if you don’t execute the agreed upon conditions, you are in  breach of the contract.   It’s no different when you are buying a home — if your lender doesn’t meet the commitments you have specified in the contract for the finance contingency, appraisal contingency, and/or the close of escrow date,  they have just breached the contract on your behalf.

And that puts you and your Realtor into damage recovery mode — not a good place to be in a negotiation.

Listing Agents Are Taking Note.

In a incredibly competitive real estate market like the one we’re in now, the listing agent often has the luxury of receiving stack of offers from which to pick the winning bid.  As such, they are able to closely scrutinize every aspect of the offer — from the price, to the terms — and pick the one with the best one.  What’s the best offer?  It’s not always the highest price.  Increasingly, it’s the offer with the best reward-vs-risk trade off.   And what are the “risk” items in an offer?  It’s the contingencies and other conditions that may get in the way of a smooth escrow.   This is where partnering with the wrong lender can really hurt you.

If you’re going to bat with an institution that’s either not known to the listing agent, or worse yet, one that the listing agent has had a bad experience with, your offer is already in deep trouble.   I’ve seen a number of offers get bounced entirely out of consideration solely because of the lender that was chosen.

Who’s the Best?

The problem is that everyone has their own definition of who the best lender is.   But consider this:  Wells Fargo and Bank of America together write probably 2/3 of all purchase loans for residential property in the Bay Area right now.    Does that mean that every agent is enamored with both of these institutions?  Of course not.  But it does mean that both banks DO understand the local market, and they’ve invested in the infrastructure to execute on purchase loans, because they continue to get the lion’s share of the business.  There are a few smaller bank that understand the local market too, and have been very successful here.

It’s also important to note that the loan officer behind the loan is just as important as the bank that they work for.   I’ve had widely varying degrees of success with different mortgage brokers at the same bank.  Much of your success lies in the hands of the mortgage broker who will be babysitting your loan application during the purchase.  (If you need some suggestions on who I believe does really well in this market, feel free to contact me and I can provide you with some excellent references.)

The bottom line is that if your Realtor has a couple of “go-to” people that they refer to, understand that there’s a very good reason why you’re being encouraged to go that path.   While you may want to work with your local credit union, or an internet bank,  or the institution that issues you your credit cards,  be very cognizant of their track record in closing home loans and how they are perceived in the local real estate market.  It’s not worth a 1/8 point difference in the interest rate to jeopardize your home purchase.

If you still really want to give them your business, you can always refinance your home with them later… when time is not so critical.
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 1-12-13.

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San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

This past week yielded some encouraging news for San Carlos buyers — 7 new listings hit the market, which is a good start to the early-spring buying season.  Hopefully, more listings will follow in the coming weeks to help alleviate some of the pent-up demand and restore some balance and sanity into the market.  Until that happens, I think you’re going to see some instances of some pretty crazy bidding like we did this past week.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 1-12-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 1-12-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
0 7
Average Sold Price
$0 $1,485,841 (+%)
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$0 $542
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 0% 89%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 0 46
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 13 11
Inventory of Active Listings:
16 11 (+45%)
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,535,684 $1,699,100
Average DOM of Active Listings: 86 123
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $563 $554
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.81 : 1 1 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The 2012 San Carlos Big Dog and Little Dog Awards.

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The Extremes of 2012.

It’s time for some Friday fun. We’ve spent the better part of this past week looking at 2012 statistics for the San Carlos real estate market.  Now it’s time to look at the statistics that really matter.  Yep, it’s time once again for our annual awards for the biggest, smallest, most expensive, and cheapest least expensive homes to sell in San Carlos… aka the Big Dog and Little Dog Awards.

There were 317 entries in this prestigious awards contest this year.  But just like the Academy Awards, it seems like one or two of the contestants seem to get most of the nominations — just look at nominations that “Lincoln” hauled in this year.   That indeed happened this year with one particular listing, which will become evident when you look at the categories below (if you even get that far before clicking out…)   To make things a little different this year, we’ll even pay homage to the first runner-up in each category.   Gotta keep the red capet fresh, after all.

So without further delay, here are the San Carlos Big Dog and Little Dog Award winners for 2012: >>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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