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This Town is on Fire.

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That’s the analogy that keeps coming to into my head when I try to relate to others what’s happening right now in the San Carlos real estate market — it’s absolutely on fire.   (The worst part is that I can almost imagine Alicia Keys singing the melody.)  For those of us who have lived here long enough to remember the boom markets of 2000 and 2007, we often catch ourselves looking back at those periods time and saying “Prices will never hit those unthinkable levels again.”   Well guess what?  The stratospheric climb we’re seeing in home prices right now in San Carlos is going to make the market of 2007 look like a harmless blip rather than the precipitous cliff that it appeared to be when the market tanked in 2008.

Many people were stunned when I posted the closing price this week for 437 Hillcrest Road on the White Oaks Blog Facebook page.  In case you missed that post, this home sold for $2,500,000 — or a cool $501,112 over the asking price.   I’m not sure if people were shocked that a house sold for $2.5M on Hillcrest, or that a house fetched a $500K premium over the asking price, … or both.

But regardless of the reason, if that little nugget took your breath away, then you’d better be sitting down — because more of these “wow” moments right around the corner way.  If the buzz on the street about the recent sales at 878 Knoll Drive and 917 Rosewood Avenue are even remotely accurate,  you’re going to have a very different reaction depending on whether you’re selling a house in San Carlos, or trying to buy one.

(At the risk of sounding like a shameless plug,  if you are indeed interested in getting daily updates on San Carlos home prices, be sure to follow to follow the White Oaks Blog Page on Facebook.)

Buyer’s Fright.

Buyers were encouraged a few weeks ago when there was a much-needed spike of new listings in San Carlos.  The hope was that this would add some balance to the market and settle things down a bit.  Nothing could have been further from the truth.  In reality, it seemingly had the effect of throwing fuel on a bonfire.  Multiple offers still abound, and sales prices are skyrocketing to unbelievable heights, despite the fact that more homes are for sale.

This puts a huge hurt on buyers who are trying to find a home in San Carlos.  Even if they can stomach the 20-30% premium over the asking price for a house they may or may not even love, they’re getting blasted out of the water by all-cash offers from buyers who are seemingly oblivious to the value of these homes.  It’s a market unlike anything we’ve seen in history.

Buyers who have given up on finding a home in San Carlos aren’t finding much relief in Redwood City or Belmont either.   Although the sales prices might end up slightly lower than in San Carlos, the same intense market conditions are in place in these communities too, and in some of the most unlikely neighborhoods.  Buyers no longer seem to care about school districts or scores – they just want a roof over their head, and they will pay dearly for it.  Those two cities have had their own  share of “wow” moments these past few weeks that are no less remarkable than what we’ve seen in San Carlos.

Seller’s Delight.

Sellers couldn’t be happier with the current market conditions — unless, of course, they plan on buying another home in this area.   Not only are homes fetching unthinkable prices, but sellers are able to dictate the terms completely in their favor, and can even secure extended rent-backs while they get ready for their move, often at no cost.

The big problem that is causing much of this price inflation is that there’s simply not enough homes for sale to satisfy the demand.   Despite the lack of chronic lack of inventory, there were 16% more listings during in first two months of this year than there were during the same periods in both 2012 and 2013.  But that increase is not nearly enough to put a damper on this runaway market.

These conditions are forcing some longer term sellers who were thinking of selling in the next 1-2 years to completely rethink their strategy.  Some are seriously considering the option of  selling now to capitalize on the market conditions, and simply renting somewhere locally for their remaining time here.

$2M Now, $3M Later?

It used to be newsworthy when a home fetched over $2M anywhere in San Carlos.   Now, with older homes being razed and remodeled at a dizzying pace, get used to seeing a “2” at the front of the listing price more often than you ever imagined.  There are two spec homes being built on the 100 block of Kelton Avenue, and rumor has it that they will be asking in excess of $2.5M.  And there will be others right behind it.

This begs the question — when will $3M homes dot the landscape of San Carlos?   There have been only 5 homes in the past 14 years to break this mystical number.  But the way things are going right now, that price range will be a lot more common in San Carlos before too long.

Brace yourself, San Carlos.   This is going to be a wild ride… and it’s far from being over.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 3-1-14.

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For the second straight week, the spring real market was literally jumping in San Carlos.   10 new listings hit the street, ranging in price from $840K to $2.3M, and almost as many homes were plucked off the market by eager buyers.   The net result of all of this buying and selling is that inventory of homes for sale as of this morning bumped up slightly to 16.

Home buyers are really hoping for more of the same type of activity this week, since each solid wave of new listings seems to diffuse some of the buying pressure in this market environment, albeit slightly, since it doesn’t feel like everyone is competing for the same house.    Much like the situation we have with the drought, it’s going to take quite a few more weeks of this type of activity to saturate this market and settle it down a bit.    But the last two weeks were a very good start.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 3-1-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 3-1-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 4
Average Sold Price: $1,022,400 $1,092,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $699 $865
Sold Price vs Orig List Price: 112% 113%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 11
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 25 22
No. of Active Listings: 16 12
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,382,875 $1,319,143
Average DOM of Active Listings: 8 6
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $631 $694
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.64 : 1 0.67 : 1

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The Asking Price? Forget About It…

Sold over list

It’s Irrelevant.

The fact that homes in San Carlos are continually selling well above their asking price is not newsworthy to anyone who reads this blog, or is even remotely plugged into the local real estate market.   A full 88% of the last 250 single-family homes sold in the City of Good Living fetched their full asking price or higher.   (OK, since I you know you were wondering, the home that sold for the biggest amount over the asking price of those 250 was 294 Devonshire Boulevard, which landed a whopping $632,000 — or 63% — over the list price.)    But I digress…

If you’re walking around an open house and you’re surrounded by other obviously interested buyers who are asking the listing agent when offers are going to be considered, there’s a good probability that this house is going to get multiple offers, and will sell above the asking price.  Frankly, if you’ve done your homework on house values, you would already know this before you even stepped foot on the property.

So now that you know the house is going to fetch a premium, just like the other 88% of homes that sold before it, is the list price even relevant anymore?   Does it matter what they are asking for the house?  The answer is a resounding NO — and the point of this post is to convince you that the sooner you can file/forget/disregard/ the list price of the home that you will be writing an offer on, the better chance you will have of winning it.

Spin the Wheel.

There’s no magic formula or scientific equation when it comes to determining the list price of a home.   That much should be obvious from the inexplicable range of asking prices for similar homes in this market.   Sometimes, they are so out of whack that it seems like the asking price was arrived at by spinning a big wheel on the agent’s office wall.  Or maybe a dartboard?

The generally accepted practice is to price the home slightly below its market value to generate lots of interest and multiple offers.   Apparently, there is a wide interpretation to what “slightly” under-pricing a house actually means, because list prices for similar size homes have been all over the map lately.   There are a variety of reasons for this phenomenon, both intentional or inadvertent:  The listing agent may be from out of the local market, and isn’t tuned into the micro-fluctuations of the San Carlos market.  Or, the agent may simply be lobbying for an artificially low listing price to help boost their statistics of how much they get over the asking price and how many offers they can generate.    It happens…

It’s also the case that it’s really difficult to gauge the market demand and inventory from week to week.  Competition has a funny way of changing one’s stratey.   And finally, there may be a situation where it’s hard to pin the value on what is being sold (i.e. a small home on a large lot, ala 294 Devonshire).

Whatever the reason may be, this highlights a very important fact for home buyers:  You absolutely cannot assume that the asking price of a home is an accurate statement of its value.

Focus on What it’s Worth.

As I have stated countless times on this site, home buyers in a competitive scenario often put too much emphasis on how much they are spending over an arbitrary list price, and not enough on determining what the home is actually worth in today’s market.

And what is a home’s worth in today’s market?  A really good starting point would be to compare it to other like homes have sold for recently, ideally no more than the past 30 days.   And if you want even more relevant data, have your agent find out the sales prices of those homes that are pending sale but not yet closed. Then you mix in the pros and cons of this particular home, its location, and its condition, and you come up with a reasonably accurate comparative price.

Kinda sounds just like what an appraiser does, right?  They use the same process to establish a base-line value of a home, and so should you. Then it just becomes an issue of how much above (or below) this base-line that you are willing to go get your home.

Look at it another way — If a decent 3BR home in White Oaks were to list tomorrow $1.1M, and you know that similar homes have been selling for $1.4M (and above), what number are you going to focus your strategy on?   Are you going to fret that you’re spending $300,000 over the asking price?   Or, are you going to focus on the fact that the house is probably worth at least $1,400,000 and formulate your strategy around that figure?

How you answer that question will speak volumes about your probability of success in this market.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 2-22-14.

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A Busy Week.

Now this is what a spring week in the San Carlos real estate market should feel like: 9 new listings debuted, 7 homes went pending, and the condo market is on absolutely on fire once again.   We will still need quite a few more weeks like this to start to balance out the market again, but this was a great start.

One of the challenges that home buyers face in this market is what I refer to as “missing the cycle.”   If you look at the average days on market for the homes that went pending this week (9 days), as well as the homes that closed escrow (10 days), you can see how compressed the time frame is for prospective home buyers.   They need to identify the house, get out and see it, make a decision, and then write an offer — all in about a week.   It’s easy to see how a single business trip, or a busy week at the office can cause a home buyer to miss an entire cycle of homes that hit the market.

And with so few homes for sale, that’s a tough hit to take — especially if “the right one” just happens to hit the market while you are out of town.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 2-22-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 2-22-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 4 0
Average Sold Price: $1,092,000 $0
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $865 $0
Sold Price vs Orig List Price: 113% 0%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 0
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 22 18
No. of Active Listings: 14 12
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,319,143 $1,400,657
Average DOM of Active Listings: 6 6
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $694 $717
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.67 : 1 0.67 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 2-15-14.

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Finally, Some Inventory.

It was an encouraging week for home buyers in San Carlos, and a somewhat irregular week for the statistics.  First, six nice homes made their debut last week, which pushed the inventory back into double-digits for the first time in weeks.   And there was a little something for all of the price ranges, from 2238 Brittan Avenue at $865,000 to 319 Emerald Avenue at $1,895,000.

Statistically speaking, it was a bit of a strange week since we did not have a single home close escrow during the entire period.  That’s certainly a rarity — I can’t recall the last weekly update where this happened — but should not be misconstrued as a sign that the market is slowing down.  There are still more homes pending sale than there are active listings, and the average days on market is still sitting at less than a week, so everything that is being put on the market is still selling quickly.

But if you’re trying to buy into this market, you knew that already.

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 2-15-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 2-15-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 0 2
Average Sold Price $0 $1,444,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $0 $966
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 0% 118%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 0 11
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 18 16
Inventory of Active Listings: 12 7
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,400,657 $1,481,841
Average DOM of Active Listings: 6 5
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $717 $679
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.67 : 1 0.44 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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Remodeling Boom Hits San Carlos.

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Cash is King Again.

Money is coursing through the veins of Silicon Valley once again, and the only group that’s more happy about this fact than the Ferrari and Tesla dealers are the designers, architects and builders of homes.  Another remodeling boom is in full swing in virtually every city on the Peninsula, and San Carlos is no exception.  And it couldn’t have come soon enough for those professionals in that trade, who were severely impacted by the prolonged recession that we just emerged from.

You probably can’t drive more than a few blocks on any street in San Carlos before you’ll encounter a fenced-in property that is undergoing some sort of significant alteration.   There’s nothing unique about this phenomenon — it happens like clockwork every time the economy takes a sharp upturn like we’re experiencing now.  I’ve lived here long enough to see several of these boom cycles take place, and the city certainly looks different afterwards.

Photo Sep 11, 11 19 43 AM

The Perfect Storm.

Whenever there’s a surge in the economy like we’re seeing now, the key elements that are required to fuel a building boom fall neatly into place.   First, a strong employment market means that homeowners feel more confident in their employment status, and consequently feel less trepidation about taking on a such a significant investment in their home.   Second, a hot job market means that salaries are increasing correspondingly, and when you combine these salary increases with a stock market that has been on an absolute tear over the past 24 months, many homeowners now have the bank accounts that are flush to fund such projects.

And let’s not forget about all of those IPO’s…

The lack of available land for new development makes these market conditions prime for flippers, too.     The constrained housing market has caused prices to rise so much and in such a short amount of time, that flippers are once again making tidy profits on their rehab projects.    And there is no shortage of buyers out there willing to pay top dollar for a move-in condition home in San Carlos, so the market to flip homes is once again vibrant.

Without going through town and asking each and every contractor, it’s difficult to determine what percentage of these rehab projects will remain owner-occupied, and which are going to be flipped as soon as they are done.  But with the absolute lack of “move-up” properties for sale in San Carlos right now, it’s a fair bet to say that many homeowners are resigned to stay put and add-on to their existing home, rather than wait for that elusive 4-5 bedroom home to magically pop up on the market.Photo Feb 11, 12 51 39 PM (1)

The Good and the Bad.

All of this remodeling can be either good or bad, depending on which direction you are approaching it from.   Generally speaking, it’s a good thing when the housing stock in San Carlos gets a refresh.   Many of the homes in this city are anywhere from 50-75 years old, which is a LOT of years to put on a house.   When old homes like these are renovated, it not only obviously increases the value of that particular home, but it also tends to bring up the value of other homes in close proximity.  The nicer the curb appeal of a given block, the higher the value of the neighborhood goes.   That part is obvious.

But with so much demand for “renovation projects” by investors and flippers, it puts even more pressure on entry-level buyers to up the ante to get that first home.    This is especially true in those neighborhoods that have large, flat lots.    Even though a home may be a total fixer, the market today is ultimately driven by the future value of the property, not the present.    In other words, the dirt often becomes the prize, not the house itself.   It’s these types of sales that absolutely shock the market, and defy all of the conventional sales wisdom.

Like it or not, the remodeling boom is back.   And the landscape in San Carlos will like quite different when this one is over.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 2-8-14.

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Rain Won’t Put Out the Fire.

The rain that we so desperately needed did not deter house hunters from getting out and seeing homes this past weekend.    The few homes that were open on Saturday and Sunday all seemed to have lots of traffic through them, which shows that buyers truly understand the dynamics of this market.  It’s not going to slow down for the weather.

Before anyone freaks out about the sold data below, it’s important to factor in the sample size of that the data is being pulled.   So even though the average price per square foot jumped to an astronomical $966 this week, and the average home sold for a whopping 18% above the asking price, you have to bear in mind that this data is for only 2 homes.   With such a small sample size, it’s easy for one (or both) sales to skew the numbers, which is clearly what happened this week.    That’s not to say that the market is not strong — but we’re not knocking on $1,000/sq foot as an average in San Carlos.

At least not yet…

Here are the details from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 2-8-2014:

San Carlos Housing Data 2-8-14 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 2 3
Average Sold Price $1,444,000 $1,670,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $966 $708
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 118% 97%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 95
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 16 12
Inventory of Active Listings: 7 6
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,481,841 $1,170,481
Average DOM of Active Listings: 5 7
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $679 $702
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.44 : 1 0.5 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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Another Reason Why There Are No Homes for Sale in San Carlos…

Not for sale

Is Anyone Moving?

When I purchased my home in San Carlos, I was concerned that the house itself was a bit on the small side for the future family that we were planning.   My Realtor at the time told me “Don’t worry, you’ll probably move to a bigger place in 5 years.  Everyone moves on average every 5-7 years”, citing statistics from the National Association of Realtors that have not changed much even to this day.

That was almost 23 years ago, and I’m still at the same San Carlos address.   So much for statistics.

But while my own example certainly bucks the long-standing national average, I got to thinking about my own clients who I have helped buy homes in San Carlos and all along the Peninsula over the past 7 years.   What percentage of them have since moved on from the homes that they purchased?   Certainly it must be significant number, if the national average says that everyone’s gypsy blood starts to boil every 5-7 years.

So I dug into my database, and the results I found were quite surprising.

Staying Put.

What was the percentage of my home buyers over the past 7 years that are still in the same home?  96%.  For homes my clients purchased in San Carlos, that number is 100% – not one has moved since they purchased.    That number simply blew me away.   Do I just attract home-bodies, or is that same phenomenon happening with other agents?    One top-producing agent who has been in the business for 10 years told me he had done the same data analysis recently and 90% of his clients had not moved again during that period.   Another agent in Menlo Park tallied her number at over 80% during a 20-year period.

This seems to suggest that most homeowners on the Peninsula are generally staying put once they find a home to buy, and that’s not good news for home buyers in an area where there is virtually no room for new construction.

So why is the number so high in San Carlos and along the Peninsula?   I have a few theories about that.

  1. The 15-Year Home.   Many home buyers tend to hone in on San Carlos and other Peninsula cities because of their excellent schools.   The size and characteristic of the home often takes a back seat to the location of the home and the proximity to the schools.   Whatever shortcomings there may be in the house (size and condition) can be rectified over time.    These buyers tend to think in 15-year increments — or, roughly enough time to get them through the infant years and a K-12 education.
  2. Upward Non-Mobility.   In a perfect world, a good percentage of these “15-year” buyers would simply prefer to move to a bigger home in San Carlos, as opposed to dealing with the hassle of remodeling their existing home to suit their growing family.   This transitional home-buying in itself would create many more new listings in San Carlos, right?  But as we have discussed numerous times on the site, the vast majority of move-up buyers in San Carlos are at a distinct disadvantage in this ultra-competitive market, because they usually have to sell their existing home to obtain the funds to purchase their move-up home.   Sellers simply won’t consider a lengthy conditional offer when they’re staring at a stack of non-contingent offers.   The net result is that many homeowners in San Carlos are going to stay at the same address, whether it’s their preference or not.
  3. In versus Out.   The livelihood of the Peninsula is heavily dependent on the technology sector.  When the tech market hits an upward swing (like it’s in now), tech companies tend to relocate key employees into the area, not out of it, simply because they’re headquartered here and the Bay Area has always been the R&D epicenter for tech.   The lack of employees relocating out of the area creates another void of potential new listings.
  4. Working Longer.   The days of a person getting a pension at 55 and riding off into the sunset are long over.  People are living longer, and many simply have to keep working.   The train of retirees leaving town simply isn’t happening.

It almost reminds me of that verse in the Eagle’s hit Hotel California “You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.”

But until one (or more) of these trends is reversed, you can expect to continue to see uncharacteristically low levels of inventory in San Carlos and surrounding communities for the foreseeable future.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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