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Changes Ahead for the San Carlos Real Estate Market: Part 3

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3 Changes to the San Carlos Market in 2014.

As we wind down what has been one of the most remarkable years in local real estate in recent memory, everyone who is even remotely connected to the real estate market — buyers and sellers alike — are taking a brief pause and looking ahead to the coming year.    One of the biggest questions that everyone is trying to answer is:

What’s going to happen the San Carlos real estate market in 2014?

Yesterday in part 2 of this series, I predicted that the San Carlos real estate market in 2014 will kick into high gear much more quickly than in typical years, as sellers look to get a jump-start on their competition.  If 2013 was any indication, home sellers fared remarkably well when they sold their homes during those windows of time when there was very little competition (like right now.)  So rather than wait until the Spring to list their homes when everyone else will be doing the same, savvy sellers will buck that conventional wisdom and test the market early in 2014.   Really early.

Today, in the third and final post of this series, we will dive into the third key factor that will impact the real estate market in 2014:  Home Prices.

#3.  Growth Rate in Home Prices Will Slow.

As is the risk with any prediction, this one is a golden opportunity for me to look back at this post a year from now and eat my words.  But I’m going to stick my neck out and predict the following:  The growth rate in home prices in San Carlos is going to taper in 2014.    Now before there’s a wide-spread panic amongst home sellers, read carefully into what I’m saying (and what I’m not saying)  — the growth rate of home prices will taper.   This doesn’t mean that there will be no increase in home prices in 2014 (sorry, home buyers), nor does it mean that prices will flatten or drop in 2014 (ditto.)

But it’s hard to fathom that the astonishing run-up in home values over the past two years in San Carlos can sustain at anywhere near the current rate.  Consider the following:  The average sales price of a single-family home in San Carlos increased 17% since just last year, and a whopping 31% since 2011.   The average price-per-square-foot of those same homes jumped by 17% in just a year, and 27% since 2011.   See the graphs below. >>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Changes Ahead for the San Carlos Real Estate Market: Part 2.

start

3 Changes to the San Carlos Market in 2014.

As we head toward the end of what has been one of the most remarkable years in local real estate in recent memory, those who are still in the market — either buyers still looking to buy, or sellers thinking about listing — are looking at the calendar and asking the same question:

What’s going to happen the San Carlos real estate market in 2014?

Yesterday on the blog I predicted that that there will likely be more single-family homes listed in San Carlos in 2014 than there were in 2013.  I also discussed the mindset behind the typical homeowner in San Carlos that is contemplating selling their home in this hot market in the next few years, and noted that many will deduce that 2014 is the right year for them to sell — even if it doesn’t align perfectly with their schedule.

Today, in the second of this three-part series, we will dive into the second key factor that will impact the real estate market in 2014:  A very fast start.

#2:  The Market Will Start Earlier.

Almost like the phenomenon we saw this year with Black Friday creeping into Thanksgiving Day, look for the house shopping season in San Carlos to come rocketing out of the chute much earlier in 2014.   In a typical year,  the market wouldn’t crank up until sometime in February.  Conventional wisdom used to be that a seller should wait until after Super Bowl Sunday to list their home to maximize the exposure, almost as if we weren’t capable of watching a football game and shopping for a house during the same weekend.

Not any more.   Faster than you can say “Happy New Year!”,  you should expect to see more new listings making their debut in January.  Early January… as in, open houses on the weekend of January 4-5.  And just like Black Friday sales, the buyers will be there waiting.  That’s something that would have been unheard of only a few years ago.

Why will it be different in 2014?

As I predicted in yesterday’s post, there will be likely be more listings to hit the market in 2014.   Smart sellers who watched the ebb and flow of the housing inventory in San Carlos this past year should have come to two simple conclusions:  First, this real estate market is simply oblivious to the calendar — meaning that conventional wisdom about what is normally the “best” week to list a home has become irrelevant.   Second, and more important, is that some of the most eye-popping sales that occurred in 2013 were during periods when there was the least amount of inventory.  In other words, the best time to sell was when there was the least amount of competition.

These two factors are exactly why you saw homes listed just a few weeks ago during Thanksgiving week, and it’s also why you’re seeing new listings hitting the market in December.   Both of these would be marketing-suicide in a normal year.  But this year?  It’s a brilliant strategy.  And it’s exactly why I believe you’ll see more listings earlier in January of 2014.

I’m not alone in this thinking.  Stagers and home inspectors are great bellwethers of future market performance.   If they’re busy now, then you know the market will be busy shortly thereafter.   I talked with a number of prominent stagers that I know and work with, and many have been surprised by the sheer number of requests to stage homes throughout the Peninsula in January, some of which will be in early January.    And a number of Realtors are counseling their sellers to get their home on the market as soon as possible in the new year to beat the competition to the punch.

So, if all of this logic becomes reality, look for the real estate market to crank up a lot sooner in the new year.   In 2013, there were 19 listings that made their debut in January, which was up significantly from only 12 in 2012.   But 40% of those listings launched during the last week of January, which means the market really didn’t get cranked up until February.

I don’t think that’s going to happen in 2014.

Tomorrow:  Part 3 — Home Prices in 2014.

Tomorrow on the White Oaks Blog, we will conclude this 3-part series with a discussion about what home prices will (or will not) do in the New Year.  Be sure to check it out.
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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Look for Key Changes in the 2014 San Carlos Real Estate Market.

3-1

Three Factors.

As we head toward the end of what has been one of the most remarkable years in local real estate in recent memory, those who are still in the market — either buyers still looking to buy, or sellers thinking about listing — are looking at the calendar and asking the same question:

What’s going to happen the San Carlos real estate market in 2014?

Anytime a market experiences such a dramatic inflection like we experienced in 2013, it significantly changes the dynamics of how the entire market behaves going forward, and that’s very much going to be the case in the new year.  So what will happen in 2014?  Will the price of a home in San Carlos continue to rise at a seemingly unstoppable rate, or will prices stabilize?  Will there be more listings than last year or less?

Over the next few days on the White Oaks Blog, we will tackle those questions in a 3-part series that will discuss three key factors that may significantly change the real estate landscape in San Carlos in 2014.

First up:  Listings.

#1.  There Will Be More Listings in 2014.

Contrary to what the paltry inventory of homes for sale in San Carlos seems to indicate, 2013 has been almost identical to 2012 with regard to the number of new listings of single-family homes.   In fact, once the December numbers are factored into the graph below, 2013 will slightly edge 2012 for the number of homes to hit the market.  The misconception stems from that fact that it took only half as long to sell the average house in 2013 (18 days) than it did in 2012 (35 days), so there was never the ability to establish any level of inventory.  This made it seem like there was a big decrease in listings from 2012, when in reality there wasn’t at all. >>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 12-7-13.

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Forsaking the Spring Market.

A very interesting statistic popped up while I was pulling data for this report –  there have already been more new listings to debut on the market in San Carlos this month (7) than there were in the entire month of December 2012 (5), and we’re barely one week into this month.   What is causing sellers to forsake the traditional spring market and list their home in what is normally one of the slowest months of the year?

There are two reasons that come to mind.  Either they want to take advantage of the complete absence of competition with the  single-digit inventory of homes for sale, OR perhaps they are concerned that the market may be starting to top out, and they don’t want to risk waiting until the spring to get the maximum value for their home.   Either way, this month is shaping up to have the strongest listing performance of any December in the past 5 years.

Here are the details from last week…

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 12-7-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 12-7-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 5
Average Sold Price $1,727,200 $1,046,400
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $559 $654
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 106% 107%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 18 19
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 27 28
Inventory of Active Listings: 9 6
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,339,772 $1,600,658
Average DOM of Active Listings: 28 61
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $699 $603
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.33 : 1 0.21 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
Get the best coverage on the San Carlos real estate market delivered right to you!
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-30-13.

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Bring on December.

Despite the shortened holiday week, it was still a surprisingly busy one for those buyers who chose to stay in town and shop for homes.   5 homes went into contract in that short period of time, and two smart sellers actually bucked the normal trend and decided to list their home during the Thanksgiving week.     They are in very select company, because as of this morning there are only 6 single-family homes for sale in the entire City of Good Living — easily the lowest level of the entire year.

Will other sellers take note of the near-perfect selling conditions and list their homes in December, or will they take the more traditional path and wait until the Spring 2014 market?   This week should give us our answer.   Stay tuned…

Here are the details from last week…

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-30-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-30-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 5 1
Average Sold Price $1,046,400 $1,748,375
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $654 $920
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 107% 104%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 19 11
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 29 28
Inventory of Active Listings: 6 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,600,658 $1,634,909
Average DOM of Active Listings: 61 48
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $603 $577
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.21 : 1 0.39 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-23-13.

Nov 28

A Week Off.

As we head into the short holiday week, home buyers in San Carlos won’t need to allocate too much time looking for homes over the extended weekend.  As of this morning, there are only 10 single-family homes for sale in the entire city, and that number will likely drop significantly in the coming days as several of the newer listings will be taking offers prior to Thanksgiving.   We will definitely be in the single-digits before too long.

Hopefully, more sellers will opt to take advantage of the market conditions and decide to list their homes in December — otherwise, it’s going to be a dry-spell to end this year for prospective home buyers.

Because of the short week and the lack of transactions to report, The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review series will very likely take a one week hiatus.  The next edition will be on Monday, December 9th and will include the combined data for both weeks.   In the meantime, I hope everyone has a happy and safe Thanksgiving!

Here are the numbers for last week…

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-23-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-23-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week: 1 2
Average Sold Price $1,748,375 $1,200,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold) $920 $745
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 104% 111%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 11 19
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 28 25
Inventory of Active Listings: 11 11
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,634,909 $1,703,545
Average DOM of Active Listings: 48 47
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $577 $594
Active-Pending Ratio: 0.39 : 1 0.42 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-16-13.

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Heading into the Holidays.

We are now less than two weeks from Thanksgiving, and the inventory of homes for sale in San Carlos is dropping like the evening temperature.  In a real estate year that seems to shrug off the calendar, homes are still getting snapped up at a frantic pace even this late in the season.   As of this morning, there are only 11 homes for sale across the entire town.  That number actually dropped well below 10 this weekend , which briefly put us at the lowest level of the entire year.

Sellers are warming to the fact that (for the right house) they can put their home on the market this late in the year and still have a horde of buyers beating a path to their door.   This doesn’t mean it’s the right decision for every seller, and some will rightfully opt to wait until the Spring market of 2014 to list their homes.    But when you realize that there’s not a single home for sale in all of White Oaks or Oak Park right now,  you simply can’t ask for more favorable conditions to sell your home.

Here are the numbers for last week…

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-16-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-16-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
2 8
Average Sold Price
$1,200,000 $1,391,385
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$745 $752
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 111% 106%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 19 19
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 25 21
Inventory of Active Listings:
11 13
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,703,545 $1,606,923
Average DOM of Active Listings: 47 48
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $594 $636
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.44 : 1 0.62 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 11-9-13.

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Entry-Level Insanity.

There doesn’t seem to be anything that can hold back the entry-level market in San Carlos right now.  To give you an idea of how much that particular segment of the market has grown this past year, the definition of an “entry-level” home San Carlos used to be one that was priced at $1M or less.  Now, it’s safe to say the upper boundary of the entry-level home in San Carlos is about $1.5M — which is about the going rate for the benchmark clean, updated 3BR home in the flats.

The sales numbers below illustrate this point very well.   For the 6 homes that were listed for under $1.5M, they all sold with multiple offers in about 10 days, and got an average of 115% of the asking price.   For the two homes that were listed above $1.5M,  they fetched 93% of their asking price, while taking nearly 41 days to sell.    That is an amazing contrast, and serves to illustrate just how competitive the lower end of the market still is in San Carlos.

Here are the numbers for last week…

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 11-9-2013:

San Carlos Housing Data 11-9-13 Prior Week
Closed Sales for the Week:
8 4
Average Sold Price
$1,391,385 $1,462,000
Average $/Sq Foot (Sold)
$752 $720
Sold Price vs Orig List (%) 106% 104%
Average DOM of Closed Sales 19 39
No. of Homes Pending Sale: 21 22
Inventory of Active Listings:
13 17
Average Price of Active Listings: $1,606,923 $1,384,056
Average DOM of Active Listings: 48 37
Average $/Sq Foot (List) $636 $651
Active-Pending Ratio:
0.62 : 1 0.77 : 1

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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