San Carlos Q3 2012 Real Estate Report.

The Numbers (Finally) Make Sense.

When we took a detailed look on this site at the numbers for the first half of 2012 in San Carlos, there were a few things that just didn’t seem to make sense.   For anyone in the housing market in the beginning of the year, it was painfully evident that the inventory of available homes had plummeted to about half of what one would expect in a normal year.   On top of that, the strengthening economy and rock-bottom interest rates encouraged a whole flock of new buyers to enter the market, setting the stage for a very competitive buying environment in San Carlos.

So one could have logically concluded that these conditions would have yielded some predictable results:

1. Homes sales figures would drop due to lack of inventory, and
2. Home prices would rise significantly because of the disparity of demand versus supply.

But neither of those things happened in the first half of the year.  Despite the dearth of inventory, the number of homes that sold in San Carlos actually increased by almost 25% over 1H2011.   Go figure.  And since there was so much demand for so few homes, you’d expect that prices would skyrocket to reflect the competitive environment — but the average sales price increased only an average of 4.4%.  Even more surprising was that the average price-per-square-foot of homes sold in San Carlos in the first half actually dropped by 1.1% from the same period in the previous year.     None of these numbers seemed to follow the trend  what most economic textbooks would predict.

But as we look at a few key metrics below for Q3 of this year, it’s evident that dynamics of this market have finally caught up, and it has had the adverse effect on the market that we kind of expected all along.

Sales Down.

Here’s a chart that you’re probably very familiar with by now.  It captures the 3 most common metrics that we use to measure the the activity and relative health of a market: For Sale, Sold , an Pended.  The 3rd quarter of 2012 is circled for your reference:

Q3-12 Sales Data for San Carlos

There are a few key things to note in this graph. First, to the surprise of absolutely nobody who is remotely connected to this market, the inventory of homes for sale was down by 1/3 from the same period one year ago — which is the way it has been all year. But take a look at the toll this has finally taken on the market:

• Homes into Contract:  Down by 7.4%
• Homes Sold (closed escrows).   Down by almost 11%

For the first time all year, these numbers are actually lower than the same period in 2011.   Does this mean that the market is slowing down?   Yes, but not for the reason that you might think.  The market is not being dragged down by a lack of buyer demand — it’s being choked by a lack of inventory.

There’s still a significant pool of buyers who are circling San Carlos waiting to pounce on the right home when it becomes available.  The difference?  They’re not pouncing on just anything that hits the market.  They’re patiently waiting for supply to increase so that they can get what they want, and hopefully not massively overpay in the process.

Prices Up.

So what effect has the lack of inventory had on home prices?    Take a look at this chart:

Price Per Square Foot – San Carlos Q3 2012

Just as you might expect from Econ 101, when demand stays high and supply drops, prices should rise, right?  That’s exactly what happened this quarter.   The average price per square foot, the only common denominator among all homes sold, actually rose by 11%.  But that’s not a surprise to anyone who is competing in this market and has witnessed some of the eye-popping prices that homes are now fetching in San Carlos.

Also, the September figure of $620/sq foot in itself is notable since it marks the first time since June of 2008 that this metric broke the $600 mark for a given month.  Prices are definitely going up.

Year-to-Date Sales.

The dip in sales in Q3 does not necessarily mean that 2012 will finish flat compared to 2011.   Here is how the unit sales is broken out by month for 2012:

Unit Sales for Single Family Residences: San Carlos 2012

Despite the drop in Q3, the unit volume figure for the year-to-date in San Carlos in 2o12 is still about 10% ahead of the same period in 2011.

For a complete list of all the single-family residences that have sold so far in 2012 (sorted by neighborhood), simply click on this link to download the list:  Homes Sold 2012 YTD – San Carlos.   Need more data? Just contact me, and I’ll be happy to overload you in statistics!
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-20-12.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

It was a surprisingly good showing this past week for real estate in San Carlos.  There were 8 new listings that debuted during the week, and 8 homes that went pending (two of which listed and pended in the same week).    And prices have continued to stay strong throughout the fall, as exemplified by this week’s closing sales that were 104% of the respective list prices, on average.  It appears that market activity will remain strong throughout the fall season here in San Carlos.

Here are the numbers for last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-20-2012:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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San Carlos Schools Post Impressive Gains in API Scores.

All Schools Post Gains.

Last week, the California Department of Education updated their Accountability Progress Reporting (APR) metric for the 2011-12 period.  The API scores posted in this report were the result of testing that was conducted across the district during the Spring of 2012.  The new API scores for all San Carlos elementary and middle schools are posted in the table below.

Without exception, every school in the San Carlos School District posted gains from the 2011 Base metric.   Gains ranged from 3 basis points at White Oak Elementary, to a whopping 17 point gain at Central Middle School.    The District as a whole posted an impressive gain of 12 basis points over the previous year, which is an incredible achievement.

I know that the District is quick to disclaim that too much focus can be placed on API scores, so I will save Seth from at least one comment to this post .  Yes, API scores are only one of many important factors in judging the proficiency of a particular school or a school district.  There are many other factors that make San Carlos schools what they are — parental involvement, funding, teachers, etc..

But I can tell you beyond the shadow of a doubt that these scores are the first thing that most home buyers look for when they determine which city (or even which neighborhood within a given city) they will focus their house hunting efforts on.   That will never change.

So congratulations to the San Carlos School District for an impressive showing by all of their excellent schools.

“N/A” means a number is not applicable or not available due to missing data.
” * ” means this API is calculated for a small school or LEA, defined as having between 11 and 99 valid Standardized Testing and Reporting (STAR) Program test scores included in the API. The API is asterisked if the school or LEA was small in either 2011 or 2012. APIs based on small numbers of students are less reliable and therefore should be carefully interpreted.
“A” means the school scored at or above the statewide performance target of 800 in 2012.
“B” means the school did not have a valid 2011 Base API and will not have any growth or target information.
“C” means the school had significant demographic changes and will not have any growth or target information.
“D” means this is either an LEA or a special education school. Target information is not applicable to LEAs or special education schools.
Targets Met – In the “Met Growth Target” columns, the growth targets reflect state accountability requirements and do not match the federal Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) requirements. The AYP requirement for the API is a 2012 Growth API of 740, or a one-point increase from the 2011 Base API to 2012 Growth API for a school or LEA.
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Measure H Polarizes San Carlos Voters.

$72M School Bond Measure.

Three weeks from today, San Carlos voters will head to the polls where they will once again be asked to vote to approve a bond measure which will raise funds for the San Carlos School District.  Measure H, if it passes by the required supermajority of 55%, will authorize the school district to issue up to $72 million in bonds to fund improvements deemed necessary to “improve, repair, and equip San Carlos elementary and middle school facilities”.

The principal and interest on these bonds will be covered by a levy on all taxable property in San Carlos.  That levy equates to about $30 per every $100,000 of assessed value of that property, and will be recorded against the property for at least the next 30 years.  As we discussed in this post, the average homeowners can expect to see an extra few hundred dollars tacked onto their property tax bill over the next 3 decades if the measure passes.

Strong Opinions on Both Sides.

As this election draws nearer, it’s very apparent that there are strong opinions both for and against this measure.  On one side, there’s the very well organized and vocal pro-Measure H contingent who have been stuffing the mailboxes and working the phone banks with equal efficiency and determination.

But there’s also a significant portion of the San Carlos voting population that has yet to be convinced that they should vote in favor of yet another school bond measure while there are still two others currently on their tax bill.    This is likely a common under-current for families with no children, and perhaps those on fixed incomes who will find it difficult to absorb another few hundred dollar hit to their bottom line every year.

There’s absolutely no refuting the direct relationship between a strong public school district and the health of its respective real estate market.  The reputation of the San Carlos School District remains one of the top reasons (if not THE top reason) why home buyers insist on establishing their roots inside the district boundaries — even when their house buying dollar will go further in other neighboring communities.   And that constant demand has kept house prices in San Carlos stable (and high) while prices in communities without a strong school district have fluctuated with rising and falling market.

A Tight Race.

But despite this obvious correlation, there’s a certain percentage of San Carlos homeowners who may not feel that another school bond measure is in the cards for them.    And in order for supporters of the measure to ensure that they get their required 55% vote, they may need some of that aforementioned group to change their minds.     The results of the highly UN-scientific poll that has been running on the site seem to support this:

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If this slice of voter sentiment is even remotely accurate, it’s apparent that the race for Measure H will be a tight one, and that every vote will indeed matter.
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-13-12.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Good weather and low interest rates are casting a favorable light on the San Carlos real estate market this fall.  The next 2-3 weeks should produce significant listing activity as sellers rush to get their homes on the market and hopefully sold before we arrive at the Thanksgiving holiday in about 6 weeks.   But in this market, I don’t think the holiday season is going to dampen the determination of home buyers in San Carlos.   So if you’re on the fence about selling your house in the fall, there’s absolutely no reason to wait.   The market conditions couldn’t be better sellers right now.

Here are the numbers for last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-13-2012:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 10-6-12.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

We’re now now in the mid-stretch of the fall real estate market, and there are no signs that activity is abating.  There were 7 new listings this week that should garner quite a bit of attention with the San Carlos home buying contingent, and there will be a few more in the coming weeks that should be of great interest, too.  From all indications, we’re in for a busy winter season.   With rates staying at historic lows and buyers still outnumbering sellers by a crazy margin, it’s looking we’ll see a very active real estate market all the way through the end of the year.  This would be a big change from normal years, when the market essentially hibernates right after Thanksgiving weekend.

Here are the numbers for the week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 10-6-2012:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 9-29-12.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

One segment of the market that doesn’t get much airplay on this site is the condo/townhouse market.  It’s a smaller segment than the single-family home market in San Carlos, but no less important.  When the market tanked about 4 years ago, this market really took a beating — much more so than homes.  The rate of short sales and foreclosures was far higher than the rest of the market in San Carlos as investors and owners in this segment were wiped out by the steep drop in values.

But the condo/townhouse segment has made a nice, steady recovery over the past 12 months.  Prices have steadily climbed as buyers and investors swooped in to pick up some pretty good values.  Many of the foreclosures and short sales are now off the books, and this market is as hotly contested as the market for single family residences.  In fact, as of this post there are NO condos or townhomes for sale in the entire city of San Carlos!    So it shouldn’t be a surprise when you see the strong sales prices that are posted below for the most recent condo sales.

Here are the numbers for the week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 9-29-2012:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 9-22-12.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

The numbers were down a bit this week as you can see from the statistics below.  There were fewer new listings, pending sales, and closed escrows than what we’ve been seeing over the past few months.  But this is in stark contrast to the activity that’s still going on in the San Carlos real estate market.  Open houses were packed yesterday, and there are still hordes of buyers looking for that right place.  In a normal year, you probably wouldn’t put your home on the market for the first time in October and definitely not in November — but this year, that wouldn’t matter.  The way things are going with demand vs inventory, you could list the home on December 24th, and it would still get the same traffic as it would right now.

Here are the numbers for the week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 9-22-2012:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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