Price Per Square Foot: Another Look at San Carlos Home Prices.

Factor Out the Size.

There are a variety of ways to analyze the relative value of a real estate market.  The most commonly used metrics are average sales price and median sales price.  Those metrics are certainly good indicators of what’s happening, but they can be skewed up or down artificially simply by the proportion of larger or smaller homes that sell during a given period.   In other words, if in a given period of time you have an abnormally high number of smaller homes that sell, that’s going to pull the average and median prices down.  But does that necessarily mean the market is getting cheaper?   Absolutely not.

One metric that helps negate this effect is the price per square foot ratio.  This is achieved simply by dividing the final sales price by the square footage of the house.   It’s not a perfect measure because it’s not linear across home sizes.   The price per square foot of a smaller home is usually higher than that of a much larger home, simply because the lot value of a smaller home plays a much greater influence on the value of the house.  Conversely, a larger home has a higher percentage of “low value” square footage.. e.e. family rooms, living rooms — so its price per square foot is a little lower.  But it’s one of the few metrics that can generally be applied across the board to all homes in a given area.

And it’s also the metric that appraisers use for establishing a baseline for assigning a value to a home, before they start to factor in the condition and amenities of the home, so it’s important to understand.

Going Up, Up, Up…

Below are two charts that show the price per square foot of homes sold in San Carlos over the past 10 year (the 2013 data is year to date.)  The first chart shows the price per square foot for ALL single-family residences sold in San Carlos since 2004:

San Carlos Price Per Square Foot: ALL Single Family Homes.

To put things in perspective, only a few years ago the $600/square foot threshold in San Carlos was an exclusive club that was reserved for new construction, or a nicely remodeled house.   Now, it’s simply the average for all homes, with some easily shattering the $800 and $900/sq foot levels (see below.)

From the chart above, the average price per square foot for a single family residence in San Carlos grew by 6% from 2012,  and is at the highest level for the past 5 years.  In fact, it is only barely inched out by the boom year of 2007 for the entire span of 10 years.

And 2013 isn’t even 1/3 complete yet.

3 Bedroom Home Prices.

I though it would be interesting extract the 3-bedroom home data from the chart above, since 3 bedroom homes are essentially the “bread and butter” of the San Carlos housing stock.   As you might have suspected, the uptick in price is  even more dramatic:

San Carlos Price Per Square Foot: 3BR Single Family Homes.

If you’re in the market for a 3 BR home, this simply confirms what you probably already felt in your gut –  not only are prices for 3BR homes in San Carlos climbing at a rate faster than the rest of the market, but they ‘re also at an all-time high.

To give you an idea of just how high prices are being pushed for 3-bedroom homes, below is a list of the five most expensive 3-bedroom homes to sell in San Carlos since the beginning of 2013,  as measured by $/sq foot.  As always, you can click on the addresses to see more details on each home:

The bottom line is that no matter how you slice it — average sales price, median sales price, or price-per-square foot — home prices are on a steep rise in San Carlos.
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4-20-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Price per square foot is a topic that we’ll address later this week on the blog.  It’s one of a few different ways to measure the relative affordability (or lack thereof) of housing in a particular area.  Using this metric instead of average or median sales price sometimes makes more sense, because that it factors the size of the house out of the equation and provides you with a metric that can be compared to all homes in the area.

Ironically, the number that jumped out at me most in the data below is the price-per-square-foot of the homes that closed escrow this past week: $719/sq foot.  As an average figure, this is pretty breathtaking when you consider that only a couple of years ago, the $600/foot threshold in San Carlos was really reserved for new construction or recently remodeled homes.  Now, that milestone would be considered below average for any given week.  More to follow on that topic later in the week.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 4-20-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4-13-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

There was nothing but green ink in the “Single Family Homes Sold in San Carlos” section of the report this week.  All 5 homes that closed escrow did so at prices that averaged 10% over the asking price.    This shouldn’t really be a surprise, since virtually every listing that has sold in the past few months has done so with multiple aggressive offers.  Of the 14 active listings that remain, at least 4 of them have offer dates for this week.  So unless we continue to get new listings to sell, the inventory is going to remain in the low-teens (or perhaps the single digits) for yet another week.  If you’re thinking of selling your home and catching the spring market, now is the time.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 4-13-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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San Carlos Crime Prevention Meeting: April 16th.

Focus on Crime Prevention.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the local news lately, you know that there has been a rash of residential burglaries in San Carlos and surrounding communities.   There was a recent press release from the City of San Carlos warning about “door knock” burglaries, where the perpetrators first knock on the door under the guise of being a repairman or salesperson.   Once they determine that nobody is home, they quickly work to gain entry and quickly clean the house out of valuable.   It has been the most common mode of burglary lately, in what has become an epidemic of residential burglaries.

Next week, a neighborhood crime prevention meeting has been set up for the residents of White Oaks and surrounding neighborhoods in San Carlos.  The San Carlos Bureau of the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Department will be in attendance to discuss the recent string of burglaries, and to recommend ways that neighbors can protect themselves.  Here’s the notification that went out today over the Nextdoor neighborhood network:

Dear Neighbors of White Oaks and Surrounding Areas:

Due to the many residential burglaries occurring in San Carlos and surrounding cities a Crime Prevention meeting has been set up with the Sheriff’s Office to discuss these incidents and see how residents can better protect themselves, assist the police in catching these thieves and stop these crimes. Captain Greg Rothaus of the Sheriff’s Office will be present to give you an overview of what has been taking place and answer your questions about crime and other important police matters.

Meeting Date: Tuesday April 16, 2013
Time: 7:30 PM
Location: White Oaks School, Multi-use room, Cedar and White Oak Way, San Carlos.

Please take this opportunity to attend this important meeting, to connect with your neighbors and hear about what is happening in the neighborhood. We look forward to seeing each of you Tuesday evening.

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Special Report: San Carlos Q1’2013 Real Estate Update.

A Seller’s Quarter.

If there was a three-month period in recent memory that was favorable for home sellers in San Carlos than the quarter that just completed, I certainly haven’t seen it.   There are three characteristics that best describe the surreal real estate market in San Carlos right now: Low inventory, high demand, and rapidly escalating prices.   If you don’t read another word in this post, that one sentence will tell you everything you need to know about the condition of our local real estate market.   And if you’re a buyer who is trying to land that evasive San Carlos home, don’t hold your breath thinking that conditions are going to change anytime soon.

In this report, we’ll dig a little into a few metrics that will simply affirm those aforementioned characteristics.

Prices at an All-Time High.

The custom chart I created below shows the average sales price of single family residences in San Carlos that sold over the past 5 complete years (2008-2012), and then compares it to the same metric for the first 3 months of 2013.

The average sales price of $1,237,228 for Q1’13 is not only a whopping 15% increase over 2012, but it’s very likely the highest average sales price on record for any quarter in San Carlos….ever.   It’s even higher than the crazy pre-market crash days of 2005-07, which topped out at about $1.22M in one quarter.

And the year is just getting started.

High Demand, Low Inventory.

A few weeks ago, I trotted out another custom chart that showed the number of new listings for the first two months of 2013, and compared it to the same period of time over the past 5 years.     At that time of that post, the numbers weren’t as bad as they seemed — while the number of new listings were certainly low, they were on par with a few previous years for the same period.  The perception that there were fewer listings was driven just as much by the fact that homes were selling far more quickly than they had in the past 5 years, thus keep the available inventory at paltry levels.

But March — normally a banner month for new listings — was an absolute disaster for new listings in 2013.   The chart below tracks the number of new listings AND the number of closed home sales for the first quarter of the past 5 years in San Carlos:

The 73 new homes that were listed on the MLS in the first quarter of 2013 was down 15% from 2012 — but since we’re on the topic of extremes, it also represents the lowest level for a Q1 in the past 10 years (which is as far back as I could trace the MLS data.)  So the perception that there are fewer listings this year in San Carlos is now a stone cold reality.

What made things even more difficult for sellers in this quarter is that the number of homes that sold did not suffer such a punishing drop.  The 48 homes that closed escrow in the first quarter — while a drop of 21% from 2012 — was still the second highest total over the past 5 years.

So in a nutshell, there were fewer homes to choose from, but still a healthy number of homes sold.  This is a lethal combination that keeps inventory at record lows.

Other Factors.

There are a few other important factors that are tilting the market ridiculously in the favor of home sellers right now.    The job market on the Peninsula is simply booming, with the high-tech and biotech industries awaking from a 3-year siesta and hiring workers at record rates.  These new employees are all looking for a roof over their head.

Despite the white-hot economy that we’re experiencing in the immediate Bay Area, the rest of the country is growing at a much slower rate.   Consequently, the Federal Reserve has opted to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels,  thus giving buyers unprecedented buying power.

And speaking of buying power, there’s simply a ton of cash floating around in the local market.  The stock market continues to hit new highs every week, and companies are finally comfortable discussing IPO plans again.   So not only are prices escalating, but the ratio of down payment/loan is growing from the normal 20% to well over 50% in many offers.

What’s Ahead?

Unfortunately for buyers, much of the same lies ahead for the foreseeable future.  Unless something changes in the factors discussed above (hot job market, low interest rates, low inventory) there will continue to be a significant imbalance in the market in favor of sellers.  That means buyers will need to dig deeper then they’re probably prepared to dig to land that elusive San Carlos home.  And for those of you watching the market, brace yourself for even more shocking pricing milestones that will certainly be shattered in the coming months.

For sellers, this is without a doubt the best selling environment that we’ve seen in the past decade.  If you even have an inkling that you’re going to be selling in the next couple of years, you should seriously look at accelerating that timeframe and cashing in.  The difference could be significant.

For a complete list of the 48 homes that sold in San Carlos in the first quarter of 2013, click here:  Q1-2013 San Carlos Home Sales
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The San Carlos Real Estate Week in Review: 4-6-13.

San Carlos Real Estate Summary.

Saved by the bell.  Just when it looked like we would plunge below our lowest level of the year — 7 listings — we got a little surge late in the week to push us back into double digits.  Sure, it’s only 12, but it’s sure a whole lot better than 6.    That’s about half the inventory that’s currently available in Belmont, to give you some idea of what’s going on in the local market.

Stay tuned to the site this week for the Q1’2013 update, where we’ll take a look at the numbers for the first quarter.  There are some very revealing trends that we’ll discuss.

Here are the numbers from last week:

By The Numbers.

Below is a high-level snapshot of the market performance for single-family residences in San Carlos. This data is for the week ending 4-6-2013:

>>> Click Here to Read the Full Post
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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Poll: Is It Time for More Stop Signs on Laurel Street?

Head on a Swivel.

If you’ve ever driven the stretch of Laurel Street in San Carlos between Arroyo and San Carlos Avenues  then you’ll know it has become nothing short of a white-knuckle ride during peak hours of the day.   Between people backing out of parking spots unexpectedly, or hanging illegal U-turns, or having pedestrians crossing at half a dozen spots on the street, you really have to have your head on a swivel to safely navigate this street.  It’s surprising there aren’t more mishaps along this stretch of the road.

But two areas in particular on Laurel always make me grip the wheel just a little bit tighter  — I’m speaking of none other than the intersections on Laurel Street at both Cherry Street and again at Olive Street (one is by Peets Coffee, and the other by Bianchini’s Market.)   As you know, these are not currently 4-way stop intersections — traffic on both Olive and Cherry have stop signs, but not on Laurel.    Here’s a map of that area with the two intersections marked:

View Laurel Street, San Carlos in a larger map

I don’ t know why it is, but it seems like all that good stuff we learned in Driver’s Ed about how to negotiate a stop sign at a two-way intersection seems to have gone out the window at these two intersections.    It’s either drivers on Olive or Cherry who think it’s a 4-way stop,  and then try to cross when they mistakenly think that traffic on Laurel is going to stop.  Or, it’s drivers on Laurel who randomly stop at the intersection thinking it’s a 4-way stop, which confuses just about everyone (cars and pedestrians alike) who are trying to get across.  If there’s a Twilight Zone anywhere in San Carlos, it’s probably at these two intersections.

So at the risk of making Laurel Street look like Broadway in Burlingame (where there seems to be a stop sign every 10 feet) I think it’s time to put stop signs on Laurel Street at both of these intersections.  I think it will eliminate the rampant confusion that seems to overcome many drivers that navigate these intersections every day.

Time for a Poll.

So, what do you think?  Should San Carlos put additional stop signs on Laurel Street at the intersections of Olive Street and Cherry Street?   Or should they leave Laurel Street it as-is?   Register your vote in the poll at the top of the right sidebar of the blog.

Thanks for voting!
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A (Slightly) Stronger Stance on Loitering at Home Depot.

Day Laborers.

If you’ve been by the Home Depot in San Carlos lately, you’ve probably seen signs just like the one pictured here.  It’s one of many “No Loitering” signs that have been installed throughout the massive parking lot that’s shared by Home Depot, Lucky’s, Pet Express, and Dollar Store on Old County Road.  Consequently, you’ve probably also noticed that the congregation of day laborers that gathers every day is now concentrated more on the sidewalks of Old County Road and Howard Avenue, instead of all throughout the parking lot like it used to be.

It’s the latest step in the delicate balance of allowing the day laborers their right to look for work, while keeping it from becoming a nuisance to patrons of these four businesses.  And it marks a slight shift in the way Home Depot and the City of San Carlos have opted to monitor the situation which has been taking place in this parking lot for a number of years.

Previously “Hands Off”.

Up until recently, the City took a pretty hands-off approach in defining where (or even if) the daily throng of day laborers could congregate around Home Depot.  When I brought up the topic with the City a few years ago, they cited a previous situation that happened in a small Southern California community where they had passed an ordinance to prohibit the gathering of day laborers in front of their Home Depot.    The town was subsequently sued by legal rights advocates and the ordinance was deemed to be a violation of the rights of the day laborers.  This left the town with a hefty legal bill and still no solution to the problem they were trying to solve,

With that legal precedence in place, it’s completely understandable why the City of San Carlos and Home Depot did not want to step on that rake, so they opted to take a more passive approach of allowing the day laborers complete access to the parking lot, but monitoring the situation with police patrols and responding only if called up to do so.

A Tougher Stance.

About the time that police services in San Carlos transitioned to the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Department, Home Depot decided that they wanted to take a slightly tougher stance in controlling the access of the day laborers to their parking lot.   Since the parking lot itself is considered private property, they opted to put the signs that you see above at key access points to the lot.   They also hired a private security firm to politely remind any laborers that they can only congregate on the public sidewalks on Howard Avenue, Old County Road, and Brittan Avenue that encircles the parking lot.

The Sheriff Department’s role is simply to remind anyone they see loitering in the parking lot of the new policy, and to inform them that they can be arrested for trespassing if they don’t adhere to the rules.   To date, compliance has been 100% and no arrests have been made for trespassing.

This new stance seems to be a good compromise — the day laborers can still exercise their right to look for work where they have the highest probability of getting it.  And patrons of these four businesses can now park their cars and go about their business without any of the previous interference they may have encountered from some of the more aggressive of the day laborers.

What are your thoughts on this different stance?
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Are you ready to step up to the most comprehensive data available about the San Carlos Real Estate market? Then subscribe to the White Oaks Blog for free by clicking here. Be sure to follow the White Oaks Blog on Facebook at https://Facebook.com/WhiteOaksBlog , and on Twitter @WhiteOaksBlog.
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