San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: September ’09.

September is traditionally a soft month in real estate, regardless of where you live.  Home sales that close in September are usually the result of contracts that were ratified in July and August, which are not usually strong sales months because they’re right in the middle of summer vacation.   So it’s not a huge surprise to see only 15 homes close this past month.

Observations?   Well, despite the low number of sales, this was the first month of this entire year where the San Carlos real estate market actually tracked pretty closely to its respective month in 2008.   In September, the number of sales and the median price were essentially equal, while the average price dropped by only 8% (compare that with double-digit drops of previous months.)     In addition, the days on market and “% of list price” statistics clearly show that homes are selling much more quickly and often above the list price.   This compelling evidence backs up what many of us who watch the market every day have been feeling  — the San Carlos real estate market is starting to find the bottom.

Here’s the story:
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Three Myths About Selling a Home Today in San Carlos.

Two weeks ago, I published an article entitled “Three Myths About Buying a Home Today in San Carlos” where I (hopefully) dispelled some misconceptions about buying a home in San Carlos in today’s market.  I received lots of positive comments on this article, and one in particular posed the question:  What about the sellers?  Are there a few myths about SELLING a home in today’s uncertain market?  Absolutely…

Myth #1: Homes aren’t selling right now.

False.   Homes are indeed selling during this tough market, and a few have even sold very quickly.   Two recent examples: 923 Elm Street went into contract in only 4 days, and 112 Madera Ave accomplished the same feat in only 10 days.   But make no mistake;  these two were more the exception than the rule — and what’s important to remember is that both of these nailed the three characteristics of the value proposition:  location, condition, and price.   Both excelled in all three areas, and having a compelling story in at least one of these is mandatory in this market.   The fundamental reasons that make San Carlos desirable have not changed, and there are well qualified buyers looking to buy now…but they’re looking for a good deal.

Fact:  Homes are indeed selling, but buyers are looking for VALUE.

Myth #2:  We should wait to sell our home until prices go back up.

This one is a little more tricky, because it all depends on what you’re planning to do after you sell.   Most people need another place to live, so they’re going to buy another home.    If so, this is a great time to move.  Why?   Even though you might get less for your current home than what you thought you might have gotten during the “hot” market of 2005, your replacement home will likely be cheaper than it was just a year ago, perhaps by an even greater amount.  This is especially true if you’re up-sizing to a larger and more expensive home.  So the money you net from selling your current home may give you more buying power in this market.   And don’t forget that property taxes will be lower if you spend less on the new home.

Look at it another way;  if you wait to sell until prices start going back up, your replacement home will be more expensive too.    Unfortunately, the law of economics doesn’t allow us to “sell high, and buy low”.

The exception might be with rental property.    The demand for rentals is still healthy in San Carlos so you shouldn’t have a problem getting and maintaining a healthy rent.   If you’re property is generating positive cash flow, it’s tough to justify selling.   And since much of your “profit” lies in the capital appreciation of the property, waiting out this down cycle may make sense.   But there are many factors to consider, and everyone’s situation is unique.

Fact:  Waiting until prices rise again may not buy you anything.

Myth #3:  There’s too much inventory to compete with. 

You’d think that with the market slowing down, and with it taking longer to sell homes, that there would be a flood of inventory on the market.  That’s not the case.  Right now in San Carlos, there are only 54 single family homes for sale.   This number is less than average for this time of year, and that lack of competition should help to keep prices more stable than if we had an excess of homes to work through.

The Fact:  Inventory is LOW in San Carlos right now.

Summary:

As I stated in the previous post, there’s no getting around the fact that it’s still a buyer’s market right now in San Carlos.   And there’s no doubt that home prices have dropped in the past year.  But with good preparation, smart pricing,  and a little bit of extra patience you shouldn’t have a problem selling your home….even in this economy.

July 2008 Home Sales Figures for San Carlos…

There are lies, d**** lies, and statistics.  

I’m sure you’re familiar with this statement that was made famous by Mark Twain.  It’s funny how this rings true in today’s technologically-driven society, where data of seemingly any kind is available right at your fingertips. No matter what you want to know, or how you want to see it, it’s probably only a couple of clicks away.

So why is this relevant to the real estate market in San Carlos?  Let’s take a peek at the numbers for July 2008:

At first glance, you can see that the number of units that sold increased significantly, but we’re finally experiencing some price erosion over past months.  OK, considering the length and severity of the nationwide housing slump, those are still very respectable numbers.  And even though the DOM average grew to 35 days, it’s sill much shorter than other cities in the bay area who would kill to have numbers like these.

So far, so good.

Now let’s now take a look at the 3-month rolling averages:

According to this graph, everything is trending “up and to the right,” to use an overworked cliche from my days in technology sales.  If you look at the rolling average for median and average prices, and especially the number of units sold, you’d think the roof is ready to blow off the market.   Recession over.  Pop the champagne…

Not so fast.

This is exactly what Twain was referring to…statistics are wonderful at making you believe something is different than what it really is.  And the San Carlos real estate market is missing one vital ingredient that may alter this encouraging growth in the next few months:

Inventory.

Inventory to the housing market is analogous to gasoline in a car.  If you’re cruising down Highway 5 at 85 MPH and you’re “Low Fuel” light comes on, one of two things are going to happen;  you’re either going to fill up, or you’re not going to be going 85 mph much longer.  Same goes with the real estate market…you simply can’t grow without inventory.  You can’t sell what’s not there.

Right now, the inventory for single-family residences in San Carlos stands at 42, and this number could easily drop more before it rises again.   7 homes have already closed escrow in August, and there are only 33 homes t0tal that are pending sale.  Just to equal July’s number of 33 homes sold, 79% of the homes that are now sale pending would need to close in August — that’s a tall order to fill.   But even if they did, if you consider that it takes a little more than a month on average for a new listing just to get into contract, and probably another 30 days to close escrow, and the harsh reality of the mathematics sinks in.  Without a significant increase in inventory, the market’s growth will starve from lack of “fuel” in the upcoming months.  There’s no other possibility.

Does this mean the market is bad in San Carlos right now?  Not at all.  Prices are still hanging in there, and homes are selling in about a month on average.   If the underlying message still isn’t clear, here it is:

Right now is a PHENOMENAL time to sell a home in San Carlos.

What Sold, and What’s New in San Carlos — Week of 4/27/08

New listings once again out-paced closed escrows this week, giving a boost to the available inventory. It’s now up to about 60 active single family listings, which it hasn’t been at for quite some time. As far as home sales are concerned, it was an interesting week — three of the “centurions” (homes that were on the market for 100 days or more) coincidentally closed escrow this week. It’s a little odd seeing numbers like these in San Carlos, but it’s normal in many other communities around the Bay Area. We have been riding a hot market for quite a while.

Check out the details — click on the property address for more info and photos…

Home Sales

• 1148 Elm St: (Pictured above) Sale Price: $1,415,000. Original List Price: $1,399,888. Difference: $15,112 over asking. DOM: 8 Days. I’m not surprised this one sold as quickly as it did — it’s a sleeper from the outside, which belies the fantastic remodel on the inside. MLS #785769, listed by Steve Eldridge of RE/MAX Today (nice job, Steve.)
• 1548 Howard Ave: Sale Price: $918,000. Original List Price: $988,000. Difference: $80,000 below asking. DOM: 202 Days. MLS #750606, listed by Antonia Katila of RE/MAX Dolphin.
• 1509 Belmont Ave: Sale Price: $855,000. Original List Price: $839,000. Difference: $16,000 over asking. DOM: 9 Days. MLS #786393, listed by Justine Ford of RE/MAX Today
• 3 Plymouth Ave: Sale Price: $819,000. Original List Price: $849,000. Difference: $30,000 below asking. DOM: 166 Days. MLS #760010, listed by Mike Leyte-Vidal of LV Associates.
• 360 Ridge Rd: Sale Price: $605,000. Original List Price: $775,000. Difference: $170,000 below asking. DOM: 176 Days. MLS #754895, listed by Carrie and Grant DuBois of Coldwell Banker.

New Listings:

• 125 Coventry Ct: $1,899,000 — 3BR/2.5BA, 2,860 sq ft on a 10,004 square foot lot. This is a very nice little neighborhood at the very top of Crestview — it’s on a block with Kent Avenue and Normandy Court, it comprises one of the few flat neighborhoods that far up in the hills. You get the best of both worlds — killer views and a flat yard. That’s why you don’t these go up for sale very often. MLS #805946, listed by Kathleen Areias of Cashin Company.
• 1083 Hewitt Dr: $1,199,998 — 3BR/2BA, 1,470 sq ft on a 12,740 square foot lot — another BIG lot by San Carlos standards. This one is described as “needing some work” in the MLS, so it will be interesting to see how much it needs. Stay tuned.. MLS #806341, listed by Julie Geyer of Carlmont Associates.
• 211 Lemoore Dr: $1,098,000 — 3BR/2BA, 1,740 sq ft on a 7,592 square foot lot. MLS #806003, listed by Cheri Cerna of Coldwell Banker.
• 12 Chilton Ave: $995,000 — 4BR/2BA, 1,910 sq ft on a 6,956 square foot lot. MLS #805671, listed by Joan La Macchia of RE/MAX Dolphin.
• 2630 Debbie Pl: $989,000 — 2BR/2BA, 1,550 sq ft on a 5,200 square foot lot. MLS #806101, listed by John Shroyer of RE/MAX Today.
• 65 Chestnut St: $929,000 — 3BR/2BA, 1,530 sq ft on a 9,296 square foot lot. (That’s a big lot for San Carlos.) MLS #805686, listed by Alex Lehr of Lehr Real Estate.
• 812 Cordilleras Ave: $899,950 — 2BR/1BA, 1,530 sq ft on a 6,670 square foot lot. MLS #804965, listed by Warren Hohn of Prudential California Realty. Getting a case of deja vu on this one? You should be… it just sold a few months ago and it’s back on the market again.
• 578 Cedar St: $879,950 — 2BR/2BA, 1,590 sq ft on a 6,500 square foot lot. MLS #805063, listed by John Reese of Intero Real Estate Services. Some interesting pictures on this one…
• 48 Bayport Ct: $879,000 — 3BR/2.5BA, 1,660 sq ft on a 5,400 square foot lot. MLS #805612, listed by Tony Gabb of RE/MAX Star Properties. No need to rush out and see this one — it’s already “Sale Pending.”
• 30 Arundel Rd: (Pictured above.) $824,985 — 2BR/1BA, 980 sq ft on a 5,472 square foot lot. MLS #805991, listed by Bob Bredel of RE/MAX Today.
• 2716 San Carlos Ave: $724,900 — 1BR/1BA, 780 sq ft on a 5,160 square foot lot. MLS #804812, listed by Bob Bredel of RE/MAX Today.

What Sold, and What’s New in San Carlos — Week of 4/20/08

Not a terribly busy week in San Carlos real estate, but things are still moving. As of this writing, there are 53 active single-family residence listings in San Carlos. Here’s the activity for the week… be sure to click on the address for more information and additional photos..

Home Sales

• 25 Cedar St: (Pictured above.) Sale Price: $1,105,000. Original List Price: $1,050,000. Difference: $55,000 above list. DOM: 3 Days. MLS #786069, listed by Gail Aknin of Cashin Company.
• 1306 Alameda: Sale Price: $880,000. Original List Price: $879,888. Difference: $112 above list. DOM: 25 Days. MLS #782799, listed by Carmen Miranda of Alain Pinel Realtors.
• 43 Roslyn Ave: Sale Price: $797,000. Original List Price: $848,000. Difference: $51,000 below list. DOM: 83 Days. MLS #771073, listed by A. Treneva of First Option Realty.

New Listings:

• 521 Vista Ave: (Pictured above.) $1,299,000 — 3BR/2BA, 2,406 sq ft on a 6,451 square foot lot. MLS #804401, listed by Geoffrey Nelson of Cashin Company.
• 119 Brook St: $929,000 — 3BR/1.5BA, 1,290 sq ft on a 7,540 square foot lot. This is a great opportunity — Brook is a quiet “extended cul-de-sac” just off Brittan. This side of Brook backs up to the creek, so it’s very scenic in the back. And with a 7,500 square foot lot, there are many expansion possibilities. MLS #803101, listed by Randy Offenbach of Intero Real Estate Services.
• 1842 San Carlos Ave: $789,000 — 3BR/2BA, 1,500 sq ft on a 6,118 square foot lot. MLS #804610, listed by Mary Harris of Intero Real Estate Services.

What Sold, and What’s New in San Carlos — Week of 4/13/08

The pace sure dropped off from last week, which shouldn’t be a surprise. The frenzied rate of new listings and home sales that hit San Carlos last week was certainly above average, and not a sustainable pace for a town the size of San Carlos. This week’s results are more typical. Note that new listings once again outnumbered closed sales, which results in a higher inventory. As of this writing, the number of active listings in San Carlos now stands at 59, which I believe is the highest level so far this year.

Here are the details. Click on the address for more photos and property info…

Home Sales

• 134 Sunnydale Ave: (Pictured above.) Sale Price: $1,815,000. Original List Price: $1,699,000. Difference: $116,000 above list. DOM: 7 Days. MLS #778434, listed by Justine Ford of RE/MAX Today. Nicely remodeled home right in the heart of White Oaks.
• 369 Clifton Ave: Sale Price: $1,412,000. Original List Price: $1,399,000. Difference: $13,000 above list. DOM: 21 Days. MLS #780188, listed by Justine Ford of RE/MAX Today.
• 265 Edgehill Dr: Sale Price: $1,115,000. Original List Price: $1,125,000. Difference: $10,000 below list. DOM: 16 Days. MLS #782825, listed by Bob Bredel of RE/MAX Today.
• 333 Old County Rd: Sale Price: $549,000. Original List Price: $549,000. Difference: $0 above list. DOM: 10 Days. MLS #779947, listed by Maria Neal of Alain Pinel Realtors.

New Listings

• 1 Coleman Ct: (Pictured above.) $1,849,000 — 3BR/3BA. 3,090 sq ft on a 10,800 square foot lot. MLS #802718, listed by Bob Bredel of RE/MAX Today.
• 329 Elm St: $1,399,000 — 4BR/3BA. 1,700 sq ft on a 6,120 square foot lot. MLS #802791, listed by Helen Greve of Coldwell Banker.
• 1088 Hewitt Dr: $1,298,888 (what, no zeroes?) — 4BR/3BA. 2,750 sq ft on a 7,850 square foot lot. MLS #801600, listed by Lisa Susnow of Coldwell Banker.
• 201 Molton Ave: $1,185,000 — 3BR/2BA. 1,700 sq ft on a 6,120 square foot lot. MLS #801603, listed by Jerrylee Vandenhurst of Lyon Real Estate.
• 1161 Woodland Ave: $949,000 — 3BR/1BA. 1,330 sq ft on a 4,880 square foot lot. MLS #801573, listed by Joyce & Tatum of Intero Real Estate Services.
• 1029 Cherry St: $799,000 — 3BR/3BA. 1,720 sq ft on a 5,000 square foot lot. Sorry, no pictures on this one yet. MLS #802949, listed by Don Chareonchitswad or RE/MAX Dolphin.