San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: 1H’09.

July 2, 2009


June Swoon?

Not really.  There was no swoon in June, but it wasn't a blowout month either.   Entering last month, I stated that there was the potential for 30 sales to close in June,  but it fell a little bit short at 23.   Nevertheless,  it was still easily the best sales month we've had so far in 2009.  That's not bad considering where the economy is at.

The average sales prices reflect what I've been saying all year — the demand for homes under $1M is dominating our real estate market market this year.   In fact, of the 94 homes that sold in San Carlos so far in 2009, 63% of them sold for under $1M.   Contrast that with 2008, when 46% sold for under $1M during the same period.   The economy, interest rates, and a plethora of first-time buyer incentives have simply made this segment more attractive than the higher end.    But look for that to change a little bit as prices continue to fall and lenders like Bank of America start to roll out some attractive jumbo loan packages.

Here's the story:


General Trends

Here's a graphical look at the monthly sales performance in San Carlos, dating back to last year.   See below for a more in-depth analysis.



June 2009 Stats.

Here's the summart from June '09 compared to the same month in 2008:

Key Trends June '09 June '08 Difference from '08
No. of Sales 23 29 6 (-21%)
Average Price $968,855 $1,123,682 $154,827 (-13.8%)
Median Price $919,000 $1,050,000 $131,000 (-12.5%)
Avg. Days on Market 55 36 19 (+53%)
% of List Price 98% 98%


YTD Sales Figures Through June '09

Here's a snapshot of the unit sales to date in 2009, compared to previous years


And here's the same data as above relative to the first half of the year…

Key Trends YTD '09 YTD '08 Difference
No. of Sales 94 126 32 (-25.4%)
Average Price $946,667 $1,146,151 $199,484 (-17.4%)
Median Price $919,000 $1,025,000 $106,000 (-10.3%)
Avg. Days on Market 53 42 10 (+26%)
% of List Price
98% 98%


Looking Ahead…

The big question right how is whether the real estate market will take it's normal summer siesta in July and August.   As you can tell from the annual graph above, October and November escrows drop precipitously every year, reflecting the sales activity during the summer months.    But this year could be different from past years — interest rates are starting to creep upwards, and most of the home-buyer incentives are due to expire at the end of the year.  There are definitely reasons to keep shopping.

There are about 27 homes that are in contract right now that could possibly close escrow in July.  If so, that would surpass June as the best month so far in 2009.   Let's hope….


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