San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: September ’09.

October 21, 2009


September is traditionally a soft month in real estate, regardless of where you live.  Home sales that close in September are usually the result of contracts that were ratified in July and August, which are not usually strong sales months because they're right in the middle of summer vacation.   So it's not a huge surprise to see only 15 homes close this past month.

Observations?   Well, despite the low number of sales, this was the first month of this entire year where the San Carlos real estate market actually tracked pretty closely to its respective month in 2008.   In September, the number of sales and the median price were essentially equal, while the average price dropped by only 8% (compare that with double-digit drops of previous months.)     In addition, the days on market and “% of list price” statistics clearly show that homes are selling much more quickly and often above the list price.   This compelling evidence backs up what many of us who watch the market every day have been feeling  — the San Carlos real estate market is starting to find the bottom.

Here's the story:


General Trends

Here's a graphical look at the monthly sales performance in San Carlos, dating back to last year. See below for a more in-depth analysis.

Sept 09


September 2009 Stats.

Here's the summary from September '09 compared to the same month in 2008:

Key Trends Sept '09 Sept '08 Difference from '08
No. of Sales 15 15 0 (0%)
Average Price $910,300 $990,400 $80,100 (-8.1%)
Median Price $860,000 $865,000 $5,000 (-0.6%)
Avg. Days on Market 23 30 7 (-23%)
% of List Price 101% 98% 3%


YTD Sales Figures Through Sept '09

Here's a snapshot of the unit sales to date in 2009, compared to previous years

Sept 09 YTD

And here's the same data in detail, through July…

Key Trends YTD '09 YTD '08 Difference
No. of Sales 160 205 45 (-22%)
Average Price $928,851 $1,101,862 $173,011 (-16%)
Median Price $883,995 $1,020,000 $136,005 (-13%)
Avg. Days on Market 55 34 19 (+56%)


Looking Ahead…

Historically, there's usually an uptick in closed sales in October compared to September.  From the frenzy of buying activity that took place in San Carlos in last month, I fully expect this to see this happen.  At the time of this post, there are already 13 home sales recorded in San Carlos, so there shouldn't be any problem surpassing the September totals.

What happens in November and December is anyone's guess.   In normal years, the market takes a snooze from November through January.  But with interest rates as low as they are, and with the possibility that the first time buyer's credit and the extended-conforming loan limit will expire at the end of the year, things may just stay hot for a couple more months.

Stay tuned…


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